HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

It's an unusual stock

Posted by: JohnTEQP on Dec 18, 08:55 in response to JustaGuy's post Why can the market settle on a direction for Hobbit?

After a blockbuster likes this debuts, you can usually assume that the price will drop after adjust, and that it will delist below adjust (see, e.g., the Twilight movies). But HOBIT has a large fan base, many of whom are older, particularly Baby Boomers who grew up with it. Those folks don't tend to rush out to see movies on opening weekend, so there may be a large group of people who see it after that. Also, it's going to be playing in lots of theaters before and after Christmas and around New Year's Day, when lots of people have free time. So it may delist above adjust. But we don't know for certain.

Why can the market settle on a direction for Hobbit? JustaGuy Dec 18, 07:29

there are thousands of traders. you cant expect every single one to hold it the exact same way. islander Dec 18, 07:34

Yes, we can expect them to. :P {nm} DTravel Dec 18, 10:37

After a stock adjusts, market forces drive the prices...people buying selling / shorting covering... Flash Dec 18, 08:02

Well, I'd say there's a third time when the price matters - when you buy/short it. :) {nm} DTravel Dec 18, 10:38

If you buy a stock the day before it opens, and I bought it 6 months ago... Flash Dec 19, 07:58

OK, I'll grow a pair...thanks! {nm} JustaGuy Dec 18, 08:31

They don't just spontaneously pop up. You have to be born with them. {nm} elchan Dec 19, 13:32

It's an unusual stock JohnTEQP Dec 18, 08:55

is your hobbit stock taking an unexpected journey? {nm} RazorHawk Dec 18, 12:00

Leading to the Desolation of his Stock. {nm} DTravel Dec 18, 12:56

the stock price was there, but now its back again? {nm} RazorHawk Dec 18, 18:57

He couldn't handle the Sting. {nm} DTravel Dec 19, 11:35

Always have 2 options, play the player and play the adjust. Personally I am playing the adjust on this one... {nm} PVL Admin Dec 18, 21:10

I think at this point it will stay down. The Monday numbers just don't show it to be on a trajectory to anywhere close to $250M in 4 weeks. elchan Dec 18, 22:42

Well I guess if you add the extra $56M that HOBIT made on it's opening weekend, it just might squeeze by with a little room to spare. {nm} elchan Dec 18, 22:50

and not all kids/families off for Xmas vacation yet, either. Lots of weekday viewing opportunities coming in the next couple weeks {nm} BSmurf Dec 19, 07:24

Sure the same scenario played for the first movie too, and it's heading the same way. We'll see if the Tues numbers track the same. {nm} elchan Dec 19, 08:19





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