HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The best recent example is (I think) ZDTHR. The price at Friday reset was 77.6, the adjust price was 77.48
For wide releases since January 2012, the HSX price taken at Friday reset (before box office data has come in for most releases) was on average 70.4% accurate. This is about the same as most tracking and other projections, and often the HSX price will follow the lead of tracking.
One thing about traders' accuracy - we get it wrong by a big margin a lot more than we get it right. Since 2012, the collective wisdom of HSX has been $30 or more off the adjust 17 times, and within a dollar on only nine occasions. I think it's partly groupthink - just like when you look at the different movie predictions, there usually isn't a lot of air between them - and partly because black swan events are more common than we think (like this weekend, which had TCALL overperforming and BURTW underperforming)
HSX Traders & Us as a predictive market Mar 17, 17:52
The best recent example is (I think) ZDTHR. The price at Friday reset was 77.6, the adjust price was 77.48 Mar 17, 20:00
The HSX Dude has a list of HSX Weekend Adjusts (that goes back a few years) (link inside) Mar 18, 09:40
thanks guys! (nm) Mar 18, 14:03
We're accurate because of the timing of the halts Mar 20, 21:10
