HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Personally, I still don't know what to think about Gatsby.

Posted by: RogerMore (a.k.a CaineFund) on May 12, 21:28 in response to ChoiceFund (stevie1der328)'s post I wanted to try a little analysis on GATSB based on what...

The work I'm doing on HSXsanity has taught me that averages across all movies (like the 10% rule) are useful sometimes, but frequently wrong for specific movies and need to be put in context. (The lower potential for weekday BO is a good example of this)  But you really need to find like movies and compare performance. 

But there simply are no good comparisons for GATSB.

The audience is a weird mix of Leo fans, Baz Luhrmann fans, 1920s/Gatsby fans, people interested in the soundtrack and people interested in the style of the film.  There are few movies like it.  BOM is usually pretty good at identifying similar movies, but they're comparing it to Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Magic Mike, Dark Shadows, Hugo, J Edgar, Bridesmaids, Wall Street 2, etc... None of these movies are anything like GATSB.  If these are the best comparisons that BOM can suggest, there are no good comparisons.

The B+ Cinemascore is not a good sign, but OTOH the audience is varied and is looking for different things.  I'm thinking fans of the book probably gave it a C, while people drawn in by the ads probably gave it an A+ (I'm guessing this because a theme of the book is about how living a life of excess doesn't make you happy. But the film is marketed as "Excess! It's great, and so stylish! Enjoy life!")

It reminds me a little of MAMIA, which also got a B+ Cinemascore, and had great word of mouth.  Clearly enough of the audience thought it was A+, even though others (probably the poor souls who were dragged along to see it) didn't.

The drop on Saturday is a clear indicator of front-loading though.

Anyway, for Gatsby I'll adopt a wait-and-see approach until we get some more dats, but while I'm waiting and seeing, I'll be playing the players.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Scary Movie (SCAR6) 120000 103.34 (-0.37)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 11.46 (-0.77)          White Lies (WHTLI) 150000 11.46 (-0.77)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 3.79 (-0.22)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 3.79 (-0.22)          Stuntnuts: The Movie (STUNT) 150000 12.15 (+0.14)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 780 80.67 (-0.08)          Stuntnuts: The Movie (STUNT) 150000 12.15 (+0.14)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 47745 80.67 (-0.08)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 47745 80.67 (-0.08)          Clue (CLUE) 150000 11.77 (+0.14)          Clue (CLUE) 150000 11.77 (+0.14)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 47745 80.67 (-0.08)          Cut Off (CUTOF) 150000 25.26 (+0.49)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 100 114.11 (-1.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 9888 426.47 (+0.04)          The Rescue (RSCUE) 150000 32.29 (+0.23)          The Rescue (RSCUE) 150000 32.29 (+0.23)          Cut Off (CUTOF) 30979 25.26 (+0.49)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 4.50 (+0.40)          Your Mother Your Mother Your Mot (YOURM) 150000 4.50 (+0.40)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 5656 114.11 (-1.00)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 10000 114.11 (-1.00)          The Wrong Girls (TWRNG) 150000 8.99 (+0.29)          The Wrong Girls (TWRNG) 150000 8.99 (+0.29)          Easy's Waltz (EWLTZ) 150000 6.46 (+0.47)          Easy's Waltz (EWLTZ) 150000 6.46 (+0.47)          The Last Druid (TLDRU) 150000 4.71 (-0.18)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Put (MNIO3.PU) 25000 0.98 (0.00)          Moana - Opening Weekend (MOAN1.OW) 35703 100.04 (-0.08)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 $200M Bl (PRAD2.BW) 25000 16.02 (+0.07)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 140000 114.11 (-1.00)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 150000 60.32 (+0.32)          Matt Bettinelli-Olpin (MBETT) 10000 53.94 (+0.16)          Craig Robinson (CROBI) 25000 79.44 (+0.25)          Adele Exarchopoulos (AEXAR) 1993 47.42 (-0.16)          Greenhouse aka The Uninhabitable (GRENH) 150000 21.06 (+0.08)          Bad Bunny (BBUNN) 25000 66.10 (+0.25)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 1 60.32 (+0.32)          David Fincher (DFINC) 12000 69.99 (0.00)          Alan Cumming (ACUMM) 25000 36.29 (+0.12)          Vince Vaughn (VVAUG) 13000 33.42 (-0.12)          White Lies (WHTLI) 50000 11.46 (-0.77)          Milly Alcock (MALCO) 25000 56.40 (-0.16)          Broadsword (BROSW) 45000 45.04 (-0.05)          Monopoly (MONOP) 50000 10.79 (-0.69)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150000 114.11 (-1.00)          Backrooms $175M Blockbuster Warr (BACRM.BW) 25000 9.10 (+0.03)          Flavia (FLAVI) 105000 3.79 (-0.22)          Flavia (FLAVI) 150000 3.79 (-0.22)