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I wanted to try a little analysis on GATSB based on what others have taught me (HSXsanity, boards) to peg Gatsby's post adjust potential.

Posted by: ChoiceFund (stevie1der328) (a.k.a ChoiceFund) on May 12, 14:28

For me, the film at first glance appeared to be one of those movies that HSX typically underestimates due to it's target audience (adult women).  I initially wanted to compare it to Bridesmaids and The Help in terms of W.O.M. and legs potential.  But a few caveats:

-Gatsby not released during summer, so lower potential for weekday gross.

-A lower cinemascore that the above two movies (B vs A+ and B+) indicating less positive word of mouth and less likely repeat viewing

-Friday estimates are higher than Saturday, indicating frontloading

 

HSXsanity has taught me another indicator would be a Monday gross less than 10% of OW gross, so anything below 5 million.  Something to keep an eye on.  As of now though, despite the breakout nature of this movie's OW take, I believe the evidence points to a delist multiplier below 2.7 and a post adjust short.

 

Any thoughts on that from vets or noobs alike?  Is that good analysis or am I missing some important data?

I wanted to try a little analysis on GATSB based on what others have taught me (HSXsanity, boards) to peg Gatsby's post adjust potential. ChoiceFund (stevie1der328) May 12, 14:28

Personally, I still don't know what to think about Gatsby. RogerMore May 12, 21:28

Thanks for the feedback, glad I'm not the only one having trouble finding a good comp. {nm} ChoiceFund (stevie1der328) May 13, 10:53





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