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I wanted to try a little analysis on GATSB based on what others have taught me (HSXsanity, boards) to peg Gatsby's post adjust potential.
For me, the film at first glance appeared to be one of those movies that HSX typically underestimates due to it's target audience (adult women). I initially wanted to compare it to Bridesmaids and The Help in terms of W.O.M. and legs potential. But a few caveats:
-Gatsby not released during summer, so lower potential for weekday gross.
-A lower cinemascore that the above two movies (B vs A+ and B+) indicating less positive word of mouth and less likely repeat viewing
-Friday estimates are higher than Saturday, indicating frontloading
HSXsanity has taught me another indicator would be a Monday gross less than 10% of OW gross, so anything below 5 million. Something to keep an eye on. As of now though, despite the breakout nature of this movie's OW take, I believe the evidence points to a delist multiplier below 2.7 and a post adjust short.
Any thoughts on that from vets or noobs alike? Is that good analysis or am I missing some important data?
I wanted to try a little analysis on GATSB based on what others have taught me (HSXsanity, boards) to peg Gatsby's post adjust potential. May 12, 14:28
Personally, I still don't know what to think about Gatsby. May 12, 21:28
Thanks for the feedback, glad I'm not the only one having trouble finding a good comp. {nm} May 13, 10:53