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Movies

oh boy, way too many questions...

Posted by: Oleg Max (a.k.a Oleg_Max) on Apr 20, 07:58 in response to NLitend1's post Thank you for the proper formulas...are there any...

i'll answer some of them.

each movie drops differently.  it is possible that drops could be more than 30% and 40% that I've assumed (or less).  some movies in a particular genre are known for big drops (sci-fi, horror, etc) but there are always exceptions.  just look at nsidi drops.  remarkable.

so, you can go for a worse case scenario, lets say 50% drops each weekend, and see what final gustimate will be, or you can plug in better case scenario, only 25% drops and see what happens.  i just picked something in the middle.  next weekend's take should tell the tale.  if movie (per screen avg) drops a lot, they might not be more aggressive expansion in week 3...  just keep your eyes open.





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Cocomelon the Movie (COMEL) 50000 55.05 (+0.05)          Constantine 2 (CNST2) 402 30.66 (+0.03)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 50000 97.34 (+0.08)          Robert Downey Jr. (RDOWN) 1 220.50 (0.00)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 76.17 (+0.33)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 5000 83.81 (-0.17)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 150000 613.97 (-2.88)          Hershey (HERSH) 150000 14.32 (+0.25)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 5000 78.86 (0.00)          Hershey (HERSH) 150000 14.32 (+0.25)          Stiletto (STLTO) 150000 3.58 (+0.33)          Stiletto (STLTO) 150000 3.58 (+0.33)          Elsinore (ELSNR) 150000 7.63 (+0.68)          Elsinore (ELSNR) 150000 7.63 (+0.68)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 150000 10.85 (-0.61)          Coward (COWRD) 49105 1.28 (-0.01)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 150000 10.85 (-0.61)          Not Alone (NTALN) 500 113.73 (+0.51)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 150000 14.39 (+0.98)          Jennifer's Body 2 (JBOD2) 150000 14.39 (+0.98)          Ice Age: Boiling Point (ICEA6) 2 95.13 (-0.08)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 5 76.17 (+0.33)          Robert Downey Jr. (RDOWN) 1 220.50 (0.00)          Donkey (DONKE) 500 129.86 (0.00)          Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass (TMJR2) 100000 17.38 (+1.05)          Hope (HOPE) 100000 8.85 (-0.02)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.32 (+0.32)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.32 (+0.32)          Be My Baby (BMYBB) 1 9.34 (+0.01)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 127714 428.31 (-1.42)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 149999 613.97 (-2.88)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 149999 428.31 (-1.42)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 1000 333.70 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 150000 613.97 (-2.88)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 5000 263.03 (+0.02)          Gonzo Girl (GONZG) 150000 0.06 (+0.04)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 20000 264.57 (+0.10)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 1 26.80 (-0.26)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 1 26.80 (-0.26)          Sgt. Rock (SGROC) 150000 19.73 (-0.14)          Sgt. Rock (SGROC) 150000 19.73 (-0.14)          Just Cause (JCAUS) 150000 0.05 (+0.04)          Dock (DOCK) 150000 0.06 (+0.05)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 13.82 (-0.30)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 13.82 (-0.30)          Attack the Block 2 (ATBL2) 150000 0.05 (+0.04)          Spaceballs: The New One (SPCB2) 500 143.33 (-0.23)          Not Alone (NTALN) 1000 113.73 (+0.51)          Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass (TMJR2) 5000 17.38 (+1.05)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 149 410.41 (0.00)