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I haven't totally made up my mind about how HGAME will do (some analysis inside), but I'm curious what you mean by "underperform".
Do you simply mean it'll do less than the 70 million OW that the current price suggests? Or do you mean it will not live up to the hype and perform quite dismally, like SUCKP? What level of "underperformance" are you thinking?
Top March OW's:
Alice in Wonderland- 116
300- 70.9
Watchmen- 55
A bunch of animated films are in there too, such as ICEA1 and ICEA2, Monsters V Aliens, Horton, and HTTYD, all in the 40-70 range. So the March comps aren't plentiful, at least at the price that it's currently trading.
As for the comp most people want to lump it with, Twilight, that's tricky too. You can make some assumptions or arguments about how popular the book series were/are and try to graft that to a comparison of anticipation for the first movies in the series, but you do hit a stumbling block in that HGAME is opening during a non-blockbuster time of the year, whereas Twilight opened right before THanksgiving week in 2008 (box office recession was nascent) to 70 mil.
I dunno. I reserve the right to be confused about how HGAME will do until we are right up upon it. :)
RS: [BTB3D] and [CNTRB] both in mid-teens (CNTRB slightly higher); [JOYNS] $10 million (no idea if these are 3 or 4 day) Jan 08, 16:08
It has to be 3 day. BO has 17 for JOYNS vs 10. The additional 7 would make sense for a 4 th day... {nm} Jan 08, 16:37
Let's all remember what RS was saying a month-and-a-half out from TWLI4. What was it? Oh, right. Low 40's. Jan 08, 16:39
Still doesn't change my opinion on HGAME. I still think it will underperform and that IMO it's way overpriced. {nm} Jan 08, 16:41
+1 {nm} Jan 08, 16:43
I haven't totally made up my mind about how HGAME will do (some analysis inside), but I'm curious what you mean by "underperform". Jan 08, 17:22
I mean "underperform" in the fact that Lionsgate is gunning for an opening in the same range as TWLIT, $60-ish or better, Jan 08, 17:34
Thanks for the clarification. And I agree with your assessments for the most part. {nm} Jan 08, 17:38
Agreed {nm} Jan 08, 20:37
Let alone Devil Inside... $5 million !!!! :) {nm} Jan 08, 16:51
Tks ss for posting at this timing .. Appreciates that ;) {nm} Jan 08, 16:43
No problem... I figured grammar had stepped out for a bit so... :) {nm} Jan 08, 16:57