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I haven't totally made up my mind about how HGAME will do (some analysis inside), but I'm curious what you mean by "underperform".

Posted by: Paul2k on Jan 08, 17:22 in response to accountant_4_Jesus' post Still doesn't change my opinion on HGAME. I still think...

Do you simply mean it'll do less than the 70 million OW that the current price suggests? Or do you mean it will not live up to the hype and perform quite dismally, like SUCKP? What level of "underperformance" are you thinking?

Top March OW's:

Alice in Wonderland- 116

300- 70.9

Watchmen- 55

A bunch of animated films are in there too, such as ICEA1 and ICEA2, Monsters V Aliens, Horton, and HTTYD, all in the 40-70 range. So the March comps aren't plentiful, at least at the price that it's currently trading.

As for the comp most people want to lump it with, Twilight, that's tricky too. You can make some assumptions or arguments about how popular the book series were/are and try to graft that to a comparison of anticipation for the first movies in the series, but you do hit a stumbling block in that HGAME is opening during a non-blockbuster time of the year, whereas Twilight opened right before THanksgiving week in 2008 (box office recession was nascent) to 70 mil.

I dunno. I reserve the right to be confused about how HGAME will do until we are right up upon it. :)





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