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His comment is about how huge openers do post adjust historically...and the lack of research done by the poster

Posted by: alfpaulytd2012 on May 07, 08:17 in response to Tanker's post Have you noticed that The Avengers has been understimated...

HPOT8  opened 169.19.....adjusted to 456.81....actual adjust should've been lower.....delist 343.09

 

Dark Knight opened 158.41...adjusted to 444.40....actual should've been lower....delist 441.63

 

SPID3 opened 151.12...adjusted to 414.40...delist 307.75

 

The point I think he was trying to make was that huge openers don't hold onto those big initial gains...in his opinion, the multiplier is impacted by the midnights.

He also made a comment about longevity based on quality.....based on general review of the 3 openers (not including HGAME b/c its not done yet theatrically and I'm not a fangirl)...that seems to be the case.

All movies aren't the same, all situations aren't the same. AVNGR can't do the same business on weekdays as some of those b/c of school and kids probably popped the number diff between AVNGR and Dark Knight. AVNGR has 3D screens and pricing that is in all likelihood larger than those blockbusters. AVNGR doesn't have to compete with upcoming/previous big tentpoles that those movies may or may not have.

End of the day, different circumstances.....but DTX made an accurate point about blockbusters (even if he colored it with a bias that some people don't share)

And did you notice how not one person replies with actual facts to back up a claim?....congrats on making his point for him

There are still 90M shorts on AVNGR. It's gone up. Some brave souls. {nm} elchan May 07, 07:43

Have you researched the record of shallow, spectacle-laden films with monster openings fueled by midnight showings? Knowledge is good. {nm} DTXbro May 07, 07:49

Have you noticed that The Avengers has been understimated at every turn? {nm} Tanker May 07, 07:51

Yeah, the Best Picture Oscar is probably in the bag. {nm} DTXbro May 07, 07:53

Oh, I'm sorry, I thought we were talking box office figures and not nominoptions. Please carry on then. {nm} Tanker May 07, 07:54

Content quality appears to influence the half-life of movies.At least, that's the general record. See: Transformers, Twilight, etc. {nm} DTXbro May 07, 07:57

Would you consider Dark Knight to be a shallow, spectacle-laden film? {nm} BionicMoron May 07, 08:04

No. I believe it transcended its genre to substantial degree, thanks in large part to Heath Ledger. {nm} DTXbro May 07, 08:16

Heath Ledger won (and, I believe, deserved) an Oscar for Dark Knight. Which Avenger is most likely to win an Oscar? Plus, Buffy The Vampire DTXbro May 07, 08:29

You do realize Joss Whedon didn't direct Buffy the Vampire Slayer, don't you? Not that it matters. {nm} Tanker May 07, 08:43

The difference here is that The Avengers is quite entertaining good action/comedy movie likely to have good legs. {nm} Adriii May 07, 08:08

Though I don't think using its quality as an argument here, I'm in flippers' team. At least in short tearm. {nm} Adriii May 07, 08:09

Which Transformers should I see? The one with 57% fresh, 35%, or 20% fresh on RT? Avengers holding at a paltry 93% fresh, BTW. Tanker May 07, 08:13

Did not fanboys (& girls) inflate Transformers and Twilight fan ratings for a (brief) time? Historically, that subsides, and numbers at IMDB DTXbro May 07, 08:24

Oh, I didn't bother with the viewwer's %, just the critics. Fanboys & fangirls skew things too much. Tanker May 07, 08:35

The 93 rating is a point in Avengers' favor, but perhaps a misleading one. The reviewer in Pittsburgh, for example, wrote this: DTXbro May 07, 10:01

Ooh! A cherry-picked bad review, one that coincides with your opinion. Most critics (and viewers) disagree with you. Tanker May 07, 10:30

I am comfortable relying on Ebert, especially when The New York Times has his back. Quality is readily distinguishable from quantity.{nm} DTXbro May 07, 10:33

The movie worked great for Deltas. We made millions. The point was that predicting delist>adjust, esp. without support, was lame. DTXbro May 07, 10:36

His comment is about how huge openers do post adjust historically...and the lack of research done by the poster alfpaulytd2012 May 07, 08:17

Really?! Do you think that any research could have predicted the AVNGR performance? elchan May 07, 08:36

Once again....made NO CALL either way of how its going to do...just giving perspective with actual facts alfpaulytd2012 May 07, 08:39

Only $8M for TLKAM. {nm} elchan May 07, 08:47

Yes...and that's 33-60% higher than your EMPHATIC prediction alfpaulytd2012 May 07, 08:54

I said $5M-$6M, so it's more like 25%-36% better. Still won't make the $90M delist that it was at last week. ;-) {nm} elchan May 07, 09:15

Hey, enjoy playing and GL....just don't try to make it out like I'm giving out an opinion like that other id and we're cool {nm} alfpaulytd2012 May 07, 09:17

DRKSH seems like a descent enough movie, but there's AVNGR has too much momentum. elchan May 07, 08:10

I was thinking the same, but then i did look up some other ones that had A+ cinema score. I honestly think its not worth the commission idrom May 07, 08:19

Especially Fund Managers, wouldn't you say :) ? Three funds I found long on AVNGR yesterday have all flipped. {nm} fred_ott May 07, 08:03

I don't find it unreasonable to think that it won't make the 2.7 multiplier with such a big opening. {nm} jwammo May 07, 08:06

Given the competition this week, it's not unreasonable to think that it would have another > $100M weekend. elchan May 07, 08:16

yeah, I personally would give it 50/50 on making the multiplier, no conviction either way... {nm} jwammo May 07, 08:21

The Dark Knight ended its fourth weekend with a 2.78 opening weekend multiplier - that was in the summer with all the kids out. {nm} fourstars May 07, 08:16

Delists: BATM2 $430/Avatar $430/HPOT8 $343/LRDL3 $312/Titanic $42. {nm} forlorne May 07, 08:39

Again, AVNGR has been underestimated, even for the adjust. The total domestic gross is $207.1M elchan May 07, 08:52

You can't even compare Avengers to HGAME? Tanker May 07, 09:08

That's post flip. During halt, there were only about 13.918 (you know, just "about") million shares shorted. {nm} funnybillypro May 07, 10:45

So it's the funds doing the shorting. There should be rules against funds doing shorts, unless they're specifically hedge funds. {nm} elchan May 07, 11:27





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