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For Fandango, there is often this movie page w/widget containing positive/negative social media chatter, & I made a link to it for you here.
http://www.fandango.com/thepossession_143554/moviereviews
Late last week, I went to Fandango's page for TPOSN and was surprised to see a 80% positive Flicktweet rating for it. Flicktweet is relatively new, and I'll be the 1st to admit the dodginess of methodology to linking positive chatter to box office. But studios have been having their internal departments monitor social media for years, ever since AICN was credited for having a major negative impact on box office for Batman & Robin. Since then, they've been giving Harry Knowles royal treatment, which was mocked by Peter Guber & Peter Bart on their former AMC series Sunday Morning Shootout.
Anyway, this particular rating is several points higher than Total Recall (2012), ROAGE, TMBOY, TMWAR & MADWP, all films which debuted in the range I'm assuming for TPOSN. That's as much as I'm divulging of the Fandango portion of my analysis, before other traders take & copy it for their own benefit.
On to AdWeek and buzzfeed. Here's where I could lose a few people with my explanation, but I'll try to make it as palatable as I can. On AdWeek, on the site proper, you will find next to nothing about this week's releases. Dig a little deeper, and I ran into a link to tracylocke.com (link below)
Type in the name of any movie premiering this week and you get a % snapshot gauging the rise or decline in chatter about a film going into the week. It's an awesome widget that is not widely known, but again, it helps me in knowing how far into the public's consciousness a film might have penetrated. And again, I wouldn't have found it if if wasn't for AdWeek, which has tremendous links to great little-known resources including:
Buzzfeed. Ta-da. Do a search for Oogieloves on buzzfeed, and you get zilch; do a search for LWLES and you get results that include trailers with an important Arrow icon indicating a multiplier for viewing activity. I saw that there was some interest, a definite change from last week. However, I opine (yes, OPINE instead of insist) that the particular level of interest does not (for me, anyway) support the notion that this could be a breakout @ OW, or even do the numbers that NEIBW or STUP4 did on their opening weekends, and the buzz tied to watching media (trailers, clips, interviews, etc.) for those films were at least a few orders of magnitude higher than what LWLES has going for it. Interestingly, plug in TPOSN into Buzzfeed's search window and you get results totally unrelated to the film, whereas many other sites like imdb.com and newzpile.com indicate robust activity.
In addition, it helps to read Cinema Blend, which publishes a prediction of its own--NOT a Box Office prediction, but a prediction of what kind of reviews a film will get by the time it opens, which is based (like my maligned BO predictions) on early published reactions (mostly on Rotten Tomatoes, which I use as well). Check this week's installment out here:
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Rotten-Week-Predicting-Lawless-Possession-Reviews-32650.html
Making my methodology even more controversial is this admission, that I factor that Cinema Blend column in as well. Make of that what you will.
In the end, the fact that my predictions are almost always exhaustively researched before they get published shouldn't disguise the fact that they are just opinions, albeit very informed ones. And these resources (and more) are available to the lay HSX player, but few choose to use them or maybe don't have the time to. I do, in addition to having attended film school many years ago and getting the rare chance to meet many of the industry's biggest shakers (I am not one myself, but I humbly submit that, perhaps someday, that will change). Xiayun is STILL (even given the background on myself that I revealed to you) tops when it comes to box office prognostication, and I don't think that will change anytime soon.
I'm presenting my informed opinion, and the traders will make of that what they will. Just as MTC has the balls to publish their oft-wildly divergent predicts, I will publish mine, won't charge anyone to read them and I invite people to challenge and in any case mock them, as I end up doing myself if or when I am wrong or wildly off the mark. They are just opinions and traders either like it and say they will or they don't and ignore it.
And, if you want a more in-depth explanation than the one written above, shoot me an e-mail at e44r32 (at) yahoo.com since I may have already given out a few too many secrets!!!
mtc 3 day only oogieloves 2.3 lawless 8 possession 9 {nm} Aug 27, 15:11
Not looking good for Lawless..although I was severely underwhelmed by their marketing {nm} Aug 27, 15:22
Thinking for both 4-day will be closer to $10m than $15m as well {nm} Aug 27, 18:09
tagging MTC: [OGILV] $2.3M 3 day only, [LWLES] $8 M, [TPOSN] $9 M {nm} Aug 27, 15:35
which tracking did you see? RS had it mid teens.. {nm} Aug 27, 15:42
DISCLAIMER--RS is off by MY predicts, not by the OW since that hasn't happened yet. Obvs. {nm} Aug 27, 15:58
What has proven reliable? Stop hyping your opinion as some sort of tracking. {nm} Aug 27, 16:17
You are right, MY OPINION is not reliable. The sources that help me form it ARE. Hope that clears things up. {nm} Aug 27, 16:21
Nope. How are Fandango, Adweek, buzzfeed reliable? How are you quantifyin the data? {nm} Aug 27, 16:26
you are allowed to use the "additional message" section instead of making so many posts only in the subject lines {nm} Aug 27, 16:46
Most people who follow the forum do - if the subject line (and the writer) are interesting enough. {nm} Aug 27, 17:06
For Fandango, there is often this movie page w/widget containing positive/negative social media chatter, & I made a link to it for you here. Aug 27, 19:11
And sometimes I cheat & wait for xiayun to publish his predicts! ;) {nm} Aug 27, 15:56
i see. thx {nm} Aug 27, 16:14
MTC with the bucket of cold water as usual {nm} Aug 27, 18:48