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okay....so because Hobbit is being released near xmas it is alleged that it cannot open too 80 million?

Posted by: Gavin (a.k.a TheFox) on Nov 07, 05:26

This would mean an adjust of less then $216. There are many prediction sites predicting only 80 m or less. Do we realy believe this?

I would like to think that Hobbit will smash the box office no matter when it is released. So if Avngr, Avatr, Batm3, Tfrm2, Pirt3, Shrk2, Lrdr3 etc were first released on the 14th December 2012, then they would all open to less then $80 million. This i find hard to believe, almost as hard to believe as the much anticipated Hobbit doing less then $80 million. But its got be thinking noe anf a little confused.

Your thoughts.....

okay....so because Hobbit is being released near xmas it is alleged that it cannot open too 80 million? Gavin Nov 07, 05:26

I remember losing a lot of money on ROTK opening weekend. {nm} AgentEvil Nov 07, 06:05

tried to look it up, could not find it.... {nm} Gavin Nov 07, 06:12

here you go tealfan Nov 07, 12:46

Rules can be broken... but december releases dont open that big, but have great to spectacular legs. There is no hurry to see it OW because gogreenytd Nov 07, 06:17

I'm torn about where the OW of this movie could land- on the one hand, the compelling arguement of no film ever opening at 80 in Dec and Paul2k Nov 07, 06:55

It's also 3D, so there's extra money; But it's also ~3 hours long, so fewer daily showings. Will those cancel each other out? {nm} BSmurf Nov 07, 06:58

Yes. It will be like matter and anti-matter. The two together will cause the universe to explode. Or implode. Or something. :) {nm} Paul2k Nov 07, 07:03

HOBT3 will probably be a different matter than the first 2 parts, given the summer opening {nm} BSmurf Nov 07, 08:21

....off course ROTK = LRDR3 opened with $72.62M 17th Dec 2003, so I reckon that's what WB's are up to. Gavin Nov 07, 09:01

But that opened on Wednesday and did not have 3D {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:43

The difference between the successful traders and the unsuccessful traders RazorHawk Nov 07, 07:45

Bingo bango bongo. Hit the head on the nail. {nm} Paul2k Nov 07, 08:04

yes thanks, looks like WB's are copying LRDR3 release. {nm} Gavin Nov 07, 09:11

I think the difference is how quick one follows the herd {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:44

Based on trading alone.. Since the openers don't halt till the numbers are out.. I tend to follow the trend until figures says otherwise {nm} karspov Nov 07, 07:51

plus none of the LOTR movies opened to more than $96M...and that's adjusted for inflation...worth keeping in the back of your mind at least tealfan Nov 07, 08:34

and none of them had 3D or opened over a 3 day weekend {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:46

LOTR3 opened closer to Xmas, on a Wed, and no 3D, but was 7th highest OW ALL TIME. 7th best today would be >$140M. {nm} forlorne Nov 07, 09:21

Shhhh...logic not allowed here. Only RS Futures can move stock. {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:45

It wasn't really RS futures. Traders who thought HOBIT was overpriced were waiting for any signal to short the stock. RS futures just RogerMore Nov 07, 12:55





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