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I'm torn about where the OW of this movie could land- on the one hand, the compelling arguement of no film ever opening at 80 in Dec and

Posted by: Paul2k on Nov 07, 06:55 in response to gogreenytd's post Rules can be broken... but december releases dont open...

the fact that the December movie-going season is different from other times of year as gogreen indicated. People are busy wrapping up work/wrapping up school/getting ready for the holidays, so they don't rush out OW to see movies, thus leading to good-not-great OW but super-sexy-legs.

However, the other hand has a compelling "what-if" scenario with multiple variables,including:

1) the performance of HGAME in March, and March showings in general- a month that wasn't "blockbuster" bait in the past got rocked with 300 (70 mil in 2007), then Alice in Wonderland (116 mil in 2010), and then HGAME (152 mil) this year. A non-traditional-blockbuster month can have outliers that, so why not December?

2) part of that first point is the idea that, perhaps, HGAME would have had boffo boxoffice regardless of when it opened- have audience, will travel, so to speak. If HGAME had opened in December, might it have busted to 150+? Who knows, but the question is, could HOBIT have the same "have audience, will travel" performance?

3) could the HOBIT be a franchise sequel that builds on the good-will (public and critical) of its predecessors and, 8 years after the last one and with OW numbers having bloomed in the interim, have a spazztastic opening?

So, yeah, weigh both sides. I have no clue. :)

okay....so because Hobbit is being released near xmas it is alleged that it cannot open too 80 million? Gavin Nov 07, 05:26

I remember losing a lot of money on ROTK opening weekend. {nm} AgentEvil Nov 07, 06:05

tried to look it up, could not find it.... {nm} Gavin Nov 07, 06:12

here you go tealfan Nov 07, 12:46

Rules can be broken... but december releases dont open that big, but have great to spectacular legs. There is no hurry to see it OW because gogreenytd Nov 07, 06:17

I'm torn about where the OW of this movie could land- on the one hand, the compelling arguement of no film ever opening at 80 in Dec and Paul2k Nov 07, 06:55

It's also 3D, so there's extra money; But it's also ~3 hours long, so fewer daily showings. Will those cancel each other out? {nm} BSmurf Nov 07, 06:58

Yes. It will be like matter and anti-matter. The two together will cause the universe to explode. Or implode. Or something. :) {nm} Paul2k Nov 07, 07:03

HOBT3 will probably be a different matter than the first 2 parts, given the summer opening {nm} BSmurf Nov 07, 08:21

....off course ROTK = LRDR3 opened with $72.62M 17th Dec 2003, so I reckon that's what WB's are up to. Gavin Nov 07, 09:01

But that opened on Wednesday and did not have 3D {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:43

The difference between the successful traders and the unsuccessful traders RazorHawk Nov 07, 07:45

Bingo bango bongo. Hit the head on the nail. {nm} Paul2k Nov 07, 08:04

yes thanks, looks like WB's are copying LRDR3 release. {nm} Gavin Nov 07, 09:11

I think the difference is how quick one follows the herd {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:44

Based on trading alone.. Since the openers don't halt till the numbers are out.. I tend to follow the trend until figures says otherwise {nm} karspov Nov 07, 07:51

plus none of the LOTR movies opened to more than $96M...and that's adjusted for inflation...worth keeping in the back of your mind at least tealfan Nov 07, 08:34

and none of them had 3D or opened over a 3 day weekend {nm} thatpj Nov 07, 12:46