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He did. But %wise, he was way off on VACDM. It's a problem with how we measure accuracy for predicting low-grossing movies.
For example, with a movie like LEGO that makes $68M OW, a prediction that's off by 6.8M is still considered 90% accurate. And a prediction that's off by $20.4M - which is obviously a terrible prediction - is still 70% accurate.
Meanwhile, for a movie that has a $4M OW, to get 90% accuracy you have to predict within 0.4M of the OW. And a prediction that's only off by $1.2M - which I would still consider a reasonably accurate guess - is 70% accurate.
For me, it's obvious that a prediction which misses the mark by $20M is far worse than a prediction that's off by $1M. But we consider tham as having the same accuracy.
Prediction site accuracy report. Bad week overall. Feb 09, 20:25
But i thought Ray Subers got it spot on at least for Lego...He had predicted 68m {nm} Feb 10, 06:50
He did. But %wise, he was way off on VACDM. It's a problem with how we measure accuracy for predicting low-grossing movies. Feb 10, 08:06
anything under $5mil could be discarded {nm} Feb 10, 11:33
And no one else had predicted over 60 (except for HSX whisperer) Feb 10, 06:56
