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Was short on SANDR and no-play on ALOHA but I'm now LONG on BOTH. Here's why:

Posted by: DTshakes on May 29, 08:59 in response to RollingThunder's post OW Gut Check Time - Long SANDR, Short ALOHA for now.

Two things in this DL article:  http://deadline.com/2015/05/san-andreas-aloha-weekend-box-office-1201434366/

First, Dwayne Johnson has 72.8M social media followers and I think they're going to push this weekend beyond the modest predictions.  

Second, the prediciton for ALOHA is in the $8-$10 range so a long hold isn't likely going to lose much value, if any over the weekend. AND, as blah as the trailer may be, so was the trailer for Cameron Crowe's last movie, We Bought a Nap (I mean Zoo), which ended up with a 8x multiple (it had legs, so maybe Aloha will too), and "the hope is... that (Aloha) will stick around as counter programming throughout the summer." 

OW Gut Check Time - Long SANDR, Short ALOHA for now. {nm} RollingThunder May 29, 07:52

Short both {nm} hyperzeitgeist May 29, 07:55

ditto {nm} gogreen May 29, 07:56

Agreed. {nm} Inigo May 29, 08:00

Sounds good too me {nm} warcraft86 May 29, 08:04

Long SANDR, bailed on ALOHA {nm} tatoufan May 29, 08:19

Short and Short. People eventually have to bail on silly movies like SANDR, right? Juiced May 29, 08:27

With the recent upward trend, I'm now short on the quakes. Hawaiians are priced correctly. {nm} Raven9167 May 29, 08:33

...hmmm market manipulation yes? keep 'gut-checks' to one's self. {nm} Sideshow13 May 29, 08:38

It's a weekly tradition. {nm} ~JPV~ May 29, 08:40

I'm in a good mood today, so I'll let your comment slide, Sideshow. {nm} RollingThunder May 29, 08:40

Which way is it being manipulated? Half/half on a lot of the movies, lol. {nm} Juiced May 29, 09:01

No, this is permitted only on opening day. {nm} Antibody May 29, 10:07

Should I be manipulated long or short... hmmm... I went long on disaster, short on Hawaii hello/goodbye. {nm} Billy Bob May 29, 10:22

Was short on SANDR and no-play on ALOHA but I'm now LONG on BOTH. Here's why: DTshakes May 29, 08:59

Great post. As an FYI, the gut checks are just for the OW Warrants. {nm} RollingThunder May 29, 09:08

Ah. Thanks! I'm long on both OW although I only expect SANDR to make any $H. (nm) DTshakes May 29, 10:27

Why are the gut checks just for the OW? Holding the stock over opening weekend is essentially a companion bet. (nm) DTshakes May 29, 12:16

because the OW halts and you can't change your mind. While the stocks are still moving till Saturday night {nm} JDolphin May 29, 12:53

Good strategy. Good luck. {nm} pennystocks2 May 29, 11:03

Zoo was a kids/family movie released at Christmas - so really no comparison {nm} JDolphin May 29, 12:57

Long on the Rock and short on the other disaster. {nm} Initech May 29, 09:04

SANDR, Long, ALOHA Short. {nm} queensguy May 29, 09:10

SANDR long , ALOHA short {nm} JMT-NL May 29, 09:24

long on quakes short on the other one {nm} Quickslver99 May 29, 09:26

short on both.. starting to regret my decision on SANDR but I'm trying not to flinch {nm} andy007 May 29, 09:51

Two shorts! {nm} slappydavid May 29, 09:55

Long California, Short Hawaii {nm} Biff68 May 29, 11:06





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