HSX Forum

Movies

it's not at all the same as before.

Posted by: adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:32 in response to Antibody's post The same way as before, look at similar films in the past.

Before pre-open you look at the price & compare it to 2.7, long or short based on that.

The post OW, you assess its adjusted price to expected legs and make a second play on it. 

Also, while the movie may not have hit 2.7 in 4 weeks (yet made it to 2.7 or greater in weeks 5, 6, 7, or 8) you were still able to cash in on profitable title. 

Now, we have to try and disregard OW, set our 4 week projection and hope the other players dont overeact to the OW figures. 

THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend. Antibody Nov 04, 09:34

well that's way off. {nm} Dorfman Nov 04, 09:41

You don't know that. It' s "being sold as a smart adult drama" in 2200 theaters. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 09:44

ALLID tracking is first example of the information interpretation dilema now with no adjust. What type of legs are we expecting? shadowking Nov 04, 09:52

Exactly. There is no way to value a MovieStock anymore. {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:28

The price of a MovieStock reflects the film's potential domestic box office during its first four weeks of wide release. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:30

How are we supposed to value that potential in advance? Is there tracking for first 4-week potential? Other info sources? {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:33

The same way as before, look at similar films in the past. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:39

Before we could use O.W. BO for comps, but now we're forced to compare delist multipliers, which vary widely and are impossible to predict {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:45

You can stil use OW BO vs 4-weekend total of similar films for comps. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:48

OW BO is now pretty much irrelevant. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:23

Disagree, you can still compare the OW to similar films. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:31

Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:39

You use the OW to figure out what it's gonna make in 4 weeks by comparing similar films. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:40

No i compare what its going to make in 4 weeks by comparing it to what other movies made in 4 weeks. SMH {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:47

And you get the 4 weeks by comparing the OW * multiplier of similar films . You're doing it without knowing it, {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:52

Now all we have to think about from date of IPO, is where will it be on day 24. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:53

This one statement describes what I will most miss about the "old" rules. I wonder that MS prices will be less dynamic considering... Willroast Nov 04, 14:21

* (referencing the adrenalin112 post directly above mine) {nm} Willroast Nov 04, 14:25

I would much rather have expected front loaded movies receive a smaller multiplier. i.e. 2.0-2.2 for 50shades {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:26

That's a judgement call. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:33

A judgement call that would be more fun if HSX made that call in advance and allowed us as players to try & beat the house. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:40

Imagine the outcry if a film adjusted 2.0 delisted at 2.7. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:39

Nah, that's a big time leg bonus TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:45

Big adjust means the HSX prediction was way off. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:48

That would be kinda awesome IMO. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:46

No, it means the HSX OW multiplier was off...most movies instantly move one way or the other after adjust... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:51

I mean, next Justice League can sit at 4 week expected at $500M TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:54

It HSX traders are playing the multiplier, than the HSX price is way off. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:55

They can be way off either way - at least one way lets them make money twice... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:58

As I've said this many times, these artifical spikes or dips skews the HSX data. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:01

It's skewed with a 4 week arbitrary cutoff anyway {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:01

Which works against animated, original, older female, and older skewing movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:02

Just 2016 Big Movies... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:06

Huh? It's been 4 weeks for nearly 20 years. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:03

It's been an adjust for that long, too - either you want perfect data or you don't...one arbitrary thing is as easily chucked as another {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:07

Do you want us to value total box office possible for a movie...or its opening weekend - 4 weeks is dumb either way... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:08

The actual box office at 4 weeks is NOT an arbitrary number. Estimated Opening Weekend * 2.7 IS an arbitrary number. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:09

The time frame (as I showed above in many big time movies this year) is arbitary - why not 1 week, or 12 like limiteds... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:12

Yes, being the same way for 20 years means that the 4 week cutoff should also be reviewed. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 12:51

+1 - if you are going to make major changes like no adjust - then other longstanding and arbitrary numbers like 4 weeks should be reviewed {nm} JDolphin Nov 04, 21:59

Please give us a commision free day before this happens Dvdtalk_gcribbs Nov 06, 08:45

Spot on. I won't be leaving since 75% of my time here was spent inactive anyway so why not leave it going? But this seems like a bad change. {nm} Willroast Nov 06, 17:09

it's not at all the same as before. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:32

Have a look at my post on the Players Board {nm} RogerMore Nov 04, 11:40

+1 {nm} PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) Nov 04, 10:58

That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock. PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) Nov 04, 11:01

Your "+1" adds nothing to the conversation, nor does your solution to my "issue" which is "make your own judgement". {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 11:26

i feel that playing the players is going to be a bigger factor than ever, many are going to short like business as usual adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:28

There are probably less than 100 active and informed traders who drive the market, and the rest are just sheep-traders. Now we're all sheep {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 11:43

Agree. Playing the players will now be the proper way to play, rather than actually trying to figure out a real box office prediction {nm} shadowking Nov 04, 12:16

Which would make HSX less predictive not more predictive {nm} magicdreamer Nov 04, 13:39

That's the drag for me. For casual players like myself, playing the players isn't a reasonable (or timely) endeavor. I think the adjust... Willroast Nov 04, 14:40

If playing the players becomes the more prominent feature, I'll probably quit - or go back to just star bonds. I have no interest in that. {nm} JDolphin Nov 04, 20:31

Showing huge ratings from critics and customers alike so far. If this does less than $25m I will be very surprised {nm} Shirtavius Nov 08, 13:36





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 24999 2.98 (+0.04)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 85000 23.67 (+0.23)          In The Land Of Saints And Sinner (ILSAS) 150000 1.76 (+0.19)          The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 99999 12.26 (+0.10)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.28 (-0.72)          Greenhouse aka The Uninhabitable (GRENH) 149996 41.64 (-0.09)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 6.25 (+0.03)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 2.52 (+0.05)          With Love (WOLOV) 5100 22.51 (+0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 31436 19.28 (-0.72)          Look Who's Talking (LWTLK) 149998 4.94 (+0.16)          A Complete Unknown aka Going Ele (GOELC) 149998 17.53 (+0.45)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 25000 3.11 (+0.24)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 9999 3.32 (+0.11)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 150000 3.32 (+0.11)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 149997 18.54 (+0.07)          Michael Chiklis (MCHIK) 25000 13.49 (-0.10)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 149998 18.25 (+0.79)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 29999 64.81 (+0.21)          The First Omen H$10 Call (OMEN1.CA) 1 2.98 (+0.04)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 149997 18.25 (+0.79)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.47 (-0.08)          Dakota Fanning (DFANN) 25000 44.43 (+0.16)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 29999 18.25 (+0.79)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 99999 18.25 (+0.79)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 1 18.21 (+1.50)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 21.90 (+0.41)          The First Omen - Opening Weekend (OMEN1.OW) 1 12.26 (+0.10)          Ray Romano (RROMA) 25000 49.11 (-0.16)          A Simple Favor 2 (ASFA2) 9999 18.21 (+1.50)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 1 2.62 (+0.06)          Untitled Bee Gees (BEEGE) 149997 16.21 (-0.12)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 1 21.90 (+0.41)          Eric Bana (EBANA) 25000 34.59 (-0.12)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 29999 21.42 (+1.72)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 9999 21.42 (+1.72)          The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 1 97.87 (-0.11)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 149997 26.14 (+0.03)          Fruitcake (FRUTC) 149997 3.52 (+0.03)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 152.70 (+0.33)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 1 2.18 (-0.05)          Edge of Tomorrow 2 aka Live, Die (EDGT2) 149997 17.85 (+0.05)          Devara Part 1 (DEVAR) 149997 6.53 (+0.03)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 19.58 (+0.30)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.02 (-0.36)          Sienna Miller (SMILL) 25000 14.82 (+0.10)          Georgina Campbell (GCAMP) 25000 19.58 (+0.30)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 2.63 (+0.17)