HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run.
blockbuster Female fan-fiction is going to pull in $150-200m, and it'll mostly come in week 1 with no legs. A huge open will cause the inexperienced players in the market to overreact and erroneously increase the price.
Summer superhero movies will pull in $200-270m, good reviews & WOM will be more of a factor than the OW figure.
Hit movies for the 50+ crowd will still do $30-45 with a mediocre OW, strong legs & weekday audiences.
Without adjust OW is nearly worthless.
THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend. Nov 04, 09:34
well that's way off. {nm} Nov 04, 09:41
You don't know that. It' s "being sold as a smart adult drama" in 2200 theaters. {nm} Nov 04, 09:44
Exactly. There is no way to value a MovieStock anymore. {nm} Nov 04, 10:28
The price of a MovieStock reflects the film's potential domestic box office during its first four weeks of wide release. {nm} Nov 04, 10:30
How are we supposed to value that potential in advance? Is there tracking for first 4-week potential? Other info sources? {nm} Nov 04, 10:33
The same way as before, look at similar films in the past. {nm} Nov 04, 10:39
You can stil use OW BO vs 4-weekend total of similar films for comps. {nm} Nov 04, 10:48
OW BO is now pretty much irrelevant. {nm} Nov 04, 11:23
Disagree, you can still compare the OW to similar films. {nm} Nov 04, 11:31
Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run. Nov 04, 11:39
You use the OW to figure out what it's gonna make in 4 weeks by comparing similar films. {nm} Nov 04, 11:40
No i compare what its going to make in 4 weeks by comparing it to what other movies made in 4 weeks. SMH {nm} Nov 04, 11:47
And you get the 4 weeks by comparing the OW * multiplier of similar films . You're doing it without knowing it, {nm} Nov 04, 11:52
Now all we have to think about from date of IPO, is where will it be on day 24. Nov 04, 11:53
* (referencing the adrenalin112 post directly above mine) {nm} Nov 04, 14:25
I would much rather have expected front loaded movies receive a smaller multiplier. i.e. 2.0-2.2 for 50shades {nm} Nov 04, 11:26
That's a judgement call. {nm} Nov 04, 11:33
Imagine the outcry if a film adjusted 2.0 delisted at 2.7. {nm} Nov 04, 11:39
Nah, that's a big time leg bonus Nov 04, 11:45
Big adjust means the HSX prediction was way off. {nm} Nov 04, 11:48
That would be kinda awesome IMO. Nov 04, 11:46
No, it means the HSX OW multiplier was off...most movies instantly move one way or the other after adjust... Nov 04, 11:51
I mean, next Justice League can sit at 4 week expected at $500M Nov 04, 11:54
It HSX traders are playing the multiplier, than the HSX price is way off. {nm} Nov 04, 11:55
They can be way off either way - at least one way lets them make money twice... {nm} Nov 04, 11:58
As I've said this many times, these artifical spikes or dips skews the HSX data. {nm} Nov 04, 12:01
It's skewed with a 4 week arbitrary cutoff anyway {nm} Nov 04, 12:01
Which works against animated, original, older female, and older skewing movies... {nm} Nov 04, 12:02
Just 2016 Big Movies... Nov 04, 12:06
Huh? It's been 4 weeks for nearly 20 years. {nm} Nov 04, 12:03
Do you want us to value total box office possible for a movie...or its opening weekend - 4 weeks is dumb either way... {nm} Nov 04, 12:08
The actual box office at 4 weeks is NOT an arbitrary number. Estimated Opening Weekend * 2.7 IS an arbitrary number. {nm} Nov 04, 12:09
The time frame (as I showed above in many big time movies this year) is arbitary - why not 1 week, or 12 like limiteds... Nov 04, 12:12
Yes, being the same way for 20 years means that the 4 week cutoff should also be reviewed. {nm} Nov 04, 12:51
Please give us a commision free day before this happens Nov 06, 08:45
it's not at all the same as before. Nov 04, 11:32
Have a look at my post on the Players Board {nm} Nov 04, 11:40
+1 {nm} Nov 04, 10:58
That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock. Nov 04, 11:01
Your "+1" adds nothing to the conversation, nor does your solution to my "issue" which is "make your own judgement". {nm} Nov 04, 11:26
i feel that playing the players is going to be a bigger factor than ever, many are going to short like business as usual Nov 04, 11:28
Which would make HSX less predictive not more predictive {nm} Nov 04, 13:39
Showing huge ratings from critics and customers alike so far. If this does less than $25m I will be very surprised {nm} Nov 08, 13:36
