HSX Forum

Movies

That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock.

Posted by: PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) (a.k.a PARAXFund) on Nov 04, 11:01 in response to PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR)'s post +1

The value is as he said in his post. Then, take a weekend estimate or actual and do the math yourself and make your own judgement on what you think that value will be at the end of the 4 weeks.Ā 

THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend. Antibody Nov 04, 09:34

well that's way off. {nm} Dorfman Nov 04, 09:41

You don't know that. It' s "being sold as a smart adult drama" in 2200 theaters. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 09:44

ALLID tracking is first example of the information interpretation dilema now with no adjust. What type of legs are we expecting? shadowking Nov 04, 09:52

Exactly. There is no way to value a MovieStock anymore. {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:28

The price of a MovieStock reflects the film's potential domestic box office during its first four weeks of wide release. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:30

How are we supposed to value that potential in advance? Is there tracking for first 4-week potential? Other info sources? {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:33

The same way as before, look at similar films in the past. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:39

Before we could use O.W. BO for comps, but now we're forced to compare delist multipliers, which vary widely and are impossible to predict {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 10:45

You can stil use OW BO vs 4-weekend total of similar films for comps. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 10:48

OW BO is now pretty much irrelevant. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:23

Disagree, you can still compare the OW to similar films. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:31

Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:39

You use the OW to figure out what it's gonna make in 4 weeks by comparing similar films. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:40

No i compare what its going to make in 4 weeks by comparing it to what other movies made in 4 weeks. SMH {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:47

And you get the 4 weeks by comparing the OW * multiplier of similar films . You're doing it without knowing it, {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:52

Now all we have to think about from date of IPO, is where will it be on day 24. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:53

This one statement describes what I will most miss about the "old" rules. I wonder that MS prices will be less dynamic considering... Willroast Nov 04, 14:21

* (referencing the adrenalin112 post directly above mine) {nm} Willroast Nov 04, 14:25

I would much rather have expected front loaded movies receive a smaller multiplier. i.e. 2.0-2.2 for 50shades {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:26

That's a judgement call. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:33

A judgement call that would be more fun if HSX made that call in advance and allowed us as players to try & beat the house. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:40

Imagine the outcry if a film adjusted 2.0 delisted at 2.7. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:39

Nah, that's a big time leg bonus TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:45

Big adjust means the HSX prediction was way off. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:48

That would be kinda awesome IMO. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:46

No, it means the HSX OW multiplier was off...most movies instantly move one way or the other after adjust... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:51

I mean, next Justice League can sit at 4 week expected at $500M TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:54

It HSX traders are playing the multiplier, than the HSX price is way off. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 11:55

They can be way off either way - at least one way lets them make money twice... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 11:58

As I've said this many times, these artifical spikes or dips skews the HSX data. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:01

It's skewed with a 4 week arbitrary cutoff anyway {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:01

Which works against animated, original, older female, and older skewing movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:02

Just 2016 Big Movies... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:06

Huh? It's been 4 weeks for nearly 20 years. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:03

It's been an adjust for that long, too - either you want perfect data or you don't...one arbitrary thing is as easily chucked as another {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:07

Do you want us to value total box office possible for a movie...or its opening weekend - 4 weeks is dumb either way... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:08

The actual box office at 4 weeks is NOT an arbitrary number. Estimated Opening Weekend * 2.7 IS an arbitrary number. {nm} Antibody Nov 04, 12:09

The time frame (as I showed above in many big time movies this year) is arbitary - why not 1 week, or 12 like limiteds... TwoMisfits Nov 04, 12:12

Yes, being the same way for 20 years means that the 4 week cutoff should also be reviewed. {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 04, 12:51

+1 - if you are going to make major changes like no adjust - then other longstanding and arbitrary numbers like 4 weeks should be reviewed {nm} JDolphin Nov 04, 21:59

Please give us a commision free day before this happens Dvdtalk_gcribbs Nov 06, 08:45

Spot on. I won't be leaving since 75% of my time here was spent inactive anyway so why not leave it going? But this seems like a bad change. {nm} Willroast Nov 06, 17:09

it's not at all the same as before. adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:32

Have a look at my post on the Players Board {nm} RogerMore Nov 04, 11:40

+1 {nm} PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) Nov 04, 10:58

That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock. PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) Nov 04, 11:01

Your "+1" adds nothing to the conversation, nor does your solution to my "issue" which is "make your own judgement". {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 11:26

i feel that playing the players is going to be a bigger factor than ever, many are going to short like business as usual adrenalin112 Nov 04, 11:28

There are probably less than 100 active and informed traders who drive the market, and the rest are just sheep-traders. Now we're all sheep {nm} Chimpmuck Nov 04, 11:43

Agree. Playing the players will now be the proper way to play, rather than actually trying to figure out a real box office prediction {nm} shadowking Nov 04, 12:16

Which would make HSX less predictive not more predictive {nm} magicdreamer Nov 04, 13:39

That's the drag for me. For casual players like myself, playing the players isn't a reasonable (or timely) endeavor. I think the adjust... Willroast Nov 04, 14:40

If playing the players becomes the more prominent feature, I'll probably quit - or go back to just star bonds. I have no interest in that. {nm} JDolphin Nov 04, 20:31

Showing huge ratings from critics and customers alike so far. If this does less than $25m I will be very surprised {nm} Shirtavius Nov 08, 13:36





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Jena Malone (JMALO) 25000 2.11 (+0.02)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.36 (-0.64)          Clue (CLUE) 50000 12.69 (+0.02)          Ian McShane (IMCSH) 25000 113.59 (+0.33)          Julia Roberts (JROBE) 1 59.48 (0.00)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 150000 26.71 (+0.76)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 150000 2.79 (-0.38)          Wicked Little Letters (WCKLL) 149999 2.79 (-0.38)          Justice Smith (JUSMI) 5000 115.31 (-0.06)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.36 (-0.64)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 9.81 (-0.74)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 149999 9.81 (-0.74)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 150000 43.41 (+0.76)          Jonathan Pryce (JPRYC) 25000 8.38 (-0.10)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 150000 43.41 (+0.76)          Isabella Rossellini (IROSS) 25000 50.09 (-0.50)          Emma Corrin (EMCOR) 25000 90.38 (-0.11)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Christopher Abbott (CABBO) 25000 4.25 (+0.05)          Paul Mescal (PMESC) 25000 2.58 (+0.02)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Star Trek 4 (TREK4) 150000 61.84 (+0.85)          Alessandro Nivola (ANIVO) 25000 5.85 (+0.05)          Dan Stevens (DSTEV) 25000 19.71 (+0.10)          Jonathan Pryce (JPRYC) 25000 8.38 (-0.10)          Isabella Rossellini (IROSS) 25000 50.09 (-0.50)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 10000 43.41 (+0.76)          With Love (WOLOV) 10000 21.83 (+0.71)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 20000 19.36 (-0.64)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 149999 43.41 (+0.76)          Bryan Cranston (BCRAN) 3583 53.86 (+0.33)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 150000 311.77 (-1.00)          Bryan Cranston (BCRAN) 21417 53.86 (+0.33)          Emma Corrin (EMCOR) 13127 90.38 (-0.11)          Cabrini (CABRI) 75000 20.24 (-0.06)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 25000 2.25 (+0.25)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 150000 30.12 (-0.10)          Fruitcake (FRUTC) 150000 3.80 (+0.31)          Kung Fu Panda 4 (PAND4) 100000 144.68 (-0.05)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 150000 43.41 (+0.76)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 150000 43.41 (+0.76)          Late Night with the Devil (LNWTD) 150000 6.70 (-0.03)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.02 (+0.02)          With Love (WOLOV) 150000 21.83 (+0.71)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 20.31 (+0.31)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 25000 2.25 (+0.25)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 150000 19.36 (-0.64)