HSX Forums: Movies Board






THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend.

Posted by: Antibody on Nov 04, 09:34

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/embattled-paramount-chief-brad-grey-bets-crowded-year-end-slate-allied-arrival-silence-944144


Tag(s): SOYLF, ALLID

THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend.   Antibody on Nov 04, 09:34

well that's way off. {nm}   Dorfman on Nov 04, 09:41

You don't know that. It' s "being sold as a smart adult drama" in 2200 theaters. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 09:44

ALLID tracking is first example of the information interpretation dilema now with no adjust. What type of legs are we expecting?    shadowking on Nov 04, 09:52

Exactly. There is no way to value a MovieStock anymore. {nm}   Chimpmuck on Nov 04, 10:28

The price of a MovieStock reflects the film's potential domestic box office during its first four weeks of wide release. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 10:30

How are we supposed to value that potential in advance? Is there tracking for first 4-week potential? Other info sources? {nm}   Chimpmuck on Nov 04, 10:33

The same way as before, look at similar films in the past. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 10:39

Before we could use O.W. BO for comps, but now we're forced to compare delist multipliers, which vary widely and are impossible to predict {nm}   Chimpmuck on Nov 04, 10:45

You can stil use OW BO vs 4-weekend total of similar films for comps. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 10:48

OW BO is now pretty much irrelevant. {nm}   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:23

Disagree, you can still compare the OW to similar films. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:31

Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run.    adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:39

You use the OW to figure out what it's gonna make in 4 weeks by comparing similar films. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:40

No i compare what its going to make in 4 weeks by comparing it to what other movies made in 4 weeks. SMH {nm}   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:47

And you get the 4 weeks by comparing the OW * multiplier of similar films . You're doing it without knowing it, {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:52

Now all we have to think about from date of IPO, is where will it be on day 24.   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:53

This one statement describes what I will most miss about the "old" rules. I wonder that MS prices will be less dynamic considering...   Willroast on Nov 04, 14:21

* (referencing the adrenalin112 post directly above mine) {nm}   Willroast on Nov 04, 14:25

I would much rather have expected front loaded movies receive a smaller multiplier. i.e. 2.0-2.2 for 50shades {nm}   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:26

That's a judgement call. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:33

A judgement call that would be more fun if HSX made that call in advance and allowed us as players to try & beat the house. {nm}   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:40

Imagine the outcry if a film adjusted 2.0 delisted at 2.7. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:39

Nah, that's a big time leg bonus   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 11:45

Big adjust means the HSX prediction was way off. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:48

That would be kinda awesome IMO.    adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:46

No, it means the HSX OW multiplier was off...most movies instantly move one way or the other after adjust...   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 11:51

I mean, next Justice League can sit at 4 week expected at $500M   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 11:54

It HSX traders are playing the multiplier, than the HSX price is way off. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 11:55

They can be way off either way - at least one way lets them make money twice... {nm}   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 11:58

As I've said this many times, these artifical spikes or dips skews the HSX data. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 12:01

It's skewed with a 4 week arbitrary cutoff anyway {nm}   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:01

Which works against animated, original, older female, and older skewing movies... {nm}   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:02

Just 2016 Big Movies...   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:06

Huh? It's been 4 weeks for nearly 20 years. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 12:03

It's been an adjust for that long, too - either you want perfect data or you don't...one arbitrary thing is as easily chucked as another {nm}   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:07

Do you want us to value total box office possible for a movie...or its opening weekend - 4 weeks is dumb either way... {nm}   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:08

The actual box office at 4 weeks is NOT an arbitrary number. Estimated Opening Weekend * 2.7 IS an arbitrary number. {nm}   Antibody on Nov 04, 12:09

The time frame (as I showed above in many big time movies this year) is arbitary - why not 1 week, or 12 like limiteds...   TwoMisfits on Nov 04, 12:12

Yes, being the same way for 20 years means that the 4 week cutoff should also be reviewed. {nm}   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 12:51

+1 - if you are going to make major changes like no adjust - then other longstanding and arbitrary numbers like 4 weeks should be reviewed {nm}   JDolphin on Nov 04, 21:59

Please give us a commision free day before this happens   Dvdtalk_gcribbs on Nov 06, 08:45

Spot on. I won't be leaving since 75% of my time here was spent inactive anyway so why not leave it going? But this seems like a bad change. {nm}   Willroast on Nov 06, 17:09

it's not at all the same as before.   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:32

Have a look at my post on the Players Board {nm}   RogerMore on Nov 04, 11:40

+1 {nm}   PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) on Nov 04, 10:58

That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock.   PARAX Fund (NOLEAFCLOVR) on Nov 04, 11:01

Your "+1" adds nothing to the conversation, nor does your solution to my "issue" which is "make your own judgement". {nm}   Chimpmuck on Nov 04, 11:26

i feel that playing the players is going to be a bigger factor than ever, many are going to short like business as usual   adrenalin112 on Nov 04, 11:28

There are probably less than 100 active and informed traders who drive the market, and the rest are just sheep-traders. Now we're all sheep {nm}   Chimpmuck on Nov 04, 11:43

Agree. Playing the players will now be the proper way to play, rather than actually trying to figure out a real box office prediction {nm}   shadowking on Nov 04, 12:16

Which would make HSX less predictive not more predictive {nm}   magicdreamer on Nov 04, 13:39

That's the drag for me. For casual players like myself, playing the players isn't a reasonable (or timely) endeavor. I think the adjust...   Willroast on Nov 04, 14:40

If playing the players becomes the more prominent feature, I'll probably quit - or go back to just star bonds. I have no interest in that. {nm}   JDolphin on Nov 04, 20:31

Showing huge ratings from critics and customers alike so far. If this does less than $25m I will be very surprised {nm}   Shirtavius on Nov 08, 13:36





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