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THR: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story tracking $130-150M [SW16]

Posted by: Antibody on Nov 22, 08:59

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/rogue-one-a-star-wars-story-tracking-huge-130m-us-debut-949896


Tag(s): SW16

THR: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story tracking $130-150M [SW16] Antibody Nov 22, 08:59

V version Antibody Nov 22, 09:28

DL: "tracking suggests an opening that’s between $100M-$140M" MattW Nov 22, 13:29

So, about 40% less than Star7...extrapolating that should give us a good 4 week price based on Star7s 4 week performance... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 22, 09:53

Or for those who want actual Math... TwoMisfits Nov 22, 09:54

Force Awakens was ridiculously frontloaded for a Xmas movie, so Rouge One has much more upside after o.w. if it's even halfway good {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 22, 10:45

No it wasn't. 4 week 812.7 / OW 248 = 3.27 {nm} Antibody Nov 22, 10:49

as a holiday multipler, 3.27 is terrible. Avatar's legs were double that {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 22, 10:52

Avatar was an outliner. {nm} Antibody Nov 22, 10:58

compared to the other top Xmas box office winners pre-Force Awakens, 3.27 is lowest multiplier of all slipping jimmy Nov 22, 11:03

Still impressive since STAR7 smashed the Opening Weekend record. No other Dec openers in the top 65. {nm} Antibody Nov 22, 11:07

would have been more impressive if it had better legs that I Am Legend {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 22, 11:13

It did. I am Legend 4 week 228 / OW 77.2 = 2.95 {nm} Antibody Nov 22, 11:18

HOBT3 = 4 week 236.46 / OW 89.13 = 2.65 {nm} RazorHawk Nov 22, 11:10

HOBT3 was 89m in 5 days, wednesday opening. {nm} MattW Nov 22, 11:41

HOBT2= 4 week 229.06 / OW 73.64 = 3.11 {nm} RazorHawk Nov 22, 11:13

Previous all time OW record holder JURA4 delist multiplier = 2.67, so Force showed better staying power. {nm} Qix Nov 22, 11:13

Xmas multipliers and summer multipliers are totally different {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 22, 11:13

Yes, although I think the pent up demand was reflected in one-off Dec OW. Agree with your point about potential Rogue upside. {nm} Qix Nov 22, 11:21

HOBIT= 4 week 263.83 / OW 84.61 = 3.12 {nm} RazorHawk Nov 22, 11:18

That's one way of looking at it. Another way is that it made more $$ in its first 3 days than almost all Xmas films make in their entire run goodvibe61 Nov 22, 19:10

and if it had performed like a normal Xmas blockbuster, it should have made a lot more {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 22, 19:19

~7 of the top 20 Dec openers have lower multipliers & Force started with 3 x the #2 title. Qix Nov 22, 20:06

Geez- it had a starting point of 249 mil (avatar started at 77) - that it had greater that 2.7 with that huge amount is Amazing!!! {nm} JDolphin Nov 22, 21:20

I was being generous - I used only a 40% cut on OW and the $150M tracking number - if this opens at $125M (or about 50% less) TwoMisfits Nov 22, 12:24

a month away from the Force Awakens' release, the argument as I recall was whether it could even break $100m for a December o.w. slipping jimmy Nov 22, 13:45

But other tracking based on secrets says 150. MY tracking says 260 and that is alos based on nothing so, it's official...no? {nm} tatoufan Nov 22, 13:13





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