HSX Forum

Movies

I have to be honest, I think you take a little too much criticism here, to the point where I've felt you were partially bullied.

Posted by: lobogotti on Jul 03, 08:03 in response to VictorY's post My feeling is we've lost a good chunk of our core film...

However, I have no idea what you're talking about?  Trying to give you the benefit of the doubt that you're hung up on something that isn't there, but it seems you may have some type of agenda.

I study box office numbers to the nth degree.  I would like you to please explain to me where Captain Marvel underperformed, outright failed or that 24% of the comic book audience has been lost becuase of that film?

Facts
1. Weekend Drops:
CM's 4th weekend had a 39.7% drop.  The 5th weekend has a 39.8% drop.  The 6th weekend had a 30.7% drop.  The 7th weekend weekend had a 5.7% increase.  The 8th weekend had an 8.7% decrease.  The film has went on to make another $13M since the 8th weekend.

In the comic book movieverse, this is a sign of a strong performing film, with legs.

2. Legs:
CMs mulitplier off OW to domestic total is 2.78

In the MCU, there are exactly 7 films that have had a better multiplier:
Guardians - 3.53 (94.3M OW, 333.1M DOM)
Black Panther - 3.47 (202M OW, 700M DOM)
Iron Man - 3.23 (98.6M OW, 318.4M DOM)
Ant-Man - 3.15 (57.2M OW, 180.2M DOM)
The Avengers 2012 - 3.01 (207.4M OW, 623.4M DOM)
Ant-Man and Wasp - 2.86 (75.8M OW, 216.6M DOM)
Spider-Man HC - 2.86 (117M OW, 334.2M DOM)

2 of those 7 are are just barely ahead at 2.86 each.  Both made considerably less at the box office.

Even with the two Ant-Man films having better mutlipliers, both films combined made $30M less at the doemstic box office.

Guardians and Iron Man both made considerably less at the box office.

Panther and Avengers were event films, with only a handful in the history of box office having similar success.  

I'd say being in the top 3rd in multiplier of MCU already qualifies CM as a successfull film.  But when you factor in there are only 5 films overall that outright made more money, and all of those are Avenger films, as well as Black Panther, it cannot be disputed that this film majorly succeeded in comparison.

Arguments
Why are you not talking about Civil War and Iron Man 3 opening higher and making less at the box office?

What about Ultron opening nearly $40M more but just barely making $30M overall, with a 2.4IM?

What about Guardians 2 opening 7M below and making nearly $40M less, with a 2.66IM?

Or Ragnarok, or Iron Man 2, both opening over $120M, around $30M less than CM, but coming in over $100M less at the box? 

Go outside the universe to Deadpool, which was a MASSIVE success, with excellent legs.  Yet it finished with a 2.74IM, below Captain Marvel.  And the second very similar to Ragnarok on IM2 in opening and final tally.

Which of those above films caused 24% of the core base of comic book fans to retreat?  Did those fans decide to put their strike on hold in order to first see End Game which will likely go down as the biggest film of all time?  Already the biggest opening ever by $100M.

Spider-Man is showing that fans are still very much interested as well.

We haven't even talked about WW gross, where CM is the #22 film of all time.  Yes, all time.  That means just 21 films are higher... in the history of the box office.

I realize we're not adjusting for inflation here, but come on man.  You're way off.  If I had more time I would show you more reasons as to why.  

So what I conclude is two things...

1. Nobody can state that Captain Marvel wasn't a HUGE success for Disney, except Disney.  And from the outside looking in, it seems almost certainly the success was smashing.

2. And I know this as fact.... NO ONE can claim to know that 24% of the comic book audience are going to abandon comic book films because of Captain Marvel.

 

I don't know what the obsession is here and why you want to hate on this film so much, but you are statistically wrong.  If you're going to blame certain films for turning away audience, I just gave you more than half a dozen you should start with.

Admit you were wrong and/or are grasping.  Collect yourself, tell folks here that going forward you'll do a better job of being fair and balanced.  Post with integrity about box office going forward and contribute without bias.  People will eventually forget your obsession on talking about this films failure.  It just isn't there.

I wish you and all here a safe and Happy 4th.  My best to you and your family.

V: Summer Box Office Meltdown: Why the Movie Business Is Running Scared stormgod Jul 02, 17:49

Nine posts down {nm} Moviesnob Jul 02, 20:01

My feeling is we've lost a good chunk of our core film base, after they got constantly ridiculed during the Captian Marvel fiasco. VictorY Jul 03, 04:48

What fiasco are you referring to? {nm} forlorne Jul 03, 06:02

After first CM trailer under-whelmed. Audience was mocked all Spring and even thru CM's box office run as being un-needed and replaceable. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:23

False. A few small dicked alt-right snowflakes got mad that marvel dared to make a female lead movie and try to sabotage it, all the while islndr Jul 03, 07:28

Case in point. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:29

"Audience" was not mocked. A few trolls who blasted brie larson simply for asking for more inclusive press were {nm} islndr Jul 03, 07:38

This {nm} MiyazakiFan Jul 03, 09:28

are you saying 24% (oddly exact) of people stopped going to movies because an actor got trolled on social media?? {nm} forlorne Jul 03, 07:46

I have no idea. I just feel that percentage has left us. I honestly believe they'd support more movies normally during the Summer frame. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:49

"I have no idea" says man asked to back up ridiculous claims. More at 11. {nm} HurricaneKid Jul 03, 09:11

possibly because such a high % of movies this summer have been crap? {nm} forlorne Jul 03, 09:13

+ 1. Definitely could be. But let's face it. A bunch of terrible movies would usually still make money in Summer (usually). {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 11:30

AVNG4 did not do 25% less than CMARV or AVNG3, it did MORE. {nm} Antibody Jul 03, 07:24

But with that huge opening.. couldn't catch "Force Awakens." Hence some views it didn't do as high as expected. I know I was suprised. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:27

Different franchise. STAR8 did not catch STAR7. {nm} Antibody Jul 03, 07:40

STAR8 had its own issues with fans. AVNG4 beat STAR7's opening by 100+ million, but can't catch STAR7 domestic. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:45

STAR7 opened in Dec. Everyone knows holiday legs are much longer than spring except you. {nm} Antibody Jul 03, 07:50

6 out of the current Top 10 All Time Domestic films opened outside the Christmas holiday frame. Summer is definitely capable. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 07:54

You swtiched from openings to total box office. Look at the legs of those ten films and you will see a clear pattern. {nm} CSStrowbridge Jul 03, 17:32

I don't know how many times you need to be informed before it gets through to you... Quit blaming the top 2 films of the year for everything HurricaneKid Jul 03, 08:46

The movie is over 3 hours long. It was never going to get as many repeat viewings. {nm} MiyazakiFan Jul 03, 09:29

Summer films almost never have the same legs as Christmas releases. CSStrowbridge Jul 03, 17:32

I have to be honest, I think you take a little too much criticism here, to the point where I've felt you were partially bullied. lobogotti Jul 03, 08:03

Hey LG. No worries. Great numbers (per usual) I feel future movies are suffering now, not necessarily Captain Marvel. Hence the down Summer. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 08:07

but you stated very specific numbers and reference a CM fiasco. I am very politely stating that the perceived fiasco never existed. lobogotti Jul 03, 08:13

Further anaysis. From me (inside). VictorY Jul 03, 08:17

okay, and while I think most here agree there is a dip in foot traffic (and will continue to be), do you think it is fair to blame CM? lobogotti Jul 03, 08:22

Foot traffic down, for sure. But a decrease in actual fandom is what has me more concerned. Many were mocked heavily for not liking CM. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 08:25

they'll get over it. they got over it for End Game, and they are out in full force for Spidey. lobogotti Jul 03, 08:32

Very possible. We'll have to see. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 08:34

This is total nonsense. {nm} Wellespring Jul 03, 08:39

what is? {nm} lobogotti Jul 03, 08:42

Honestly, I think Lobogotti lays out a pretty strong case here. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 08:44

I agree that lobogotti provides a pretty strong rebuttal to your "analysis." {nm} Wellespring Jul 03, 09:17

VictorY's "analysis." Apologies. Thought that would be clear. {nm} Wellespring Jul 03, 09:13

I assumed, but wasn't sure. and I'm not quick to call anyone out, but I finally stepped into this long ongoing lobogotti Jul 03, 09:19

His "fixation" I would wager is rooted in politics, not data. HurricaneKid Jul 03, 09:31

ahh, I see. unfortunate to bring politics into this, should that be the case. thanks for the kind words. {nm} lobogotti Jul 03, 10:33

Its not politics. Its simple data. Summer is down to below 2018, 2017, and 2016 levels. Which isn't good. I don't just give happy talk.. VictorY Jul 03, 11:29

well if that's your stance, then you must take CMarvel as the reason for the box office being down. there just isn't lobogotti Jul 03, 11:35

*you must take CMarvel out of the equation, as for the reason {nm} lobogotti Jul 03, 11:36

Your argument is that summer box office is down because of a movie from March. And you don't have any facts or data to back this up. {nm} HurricaneKid Jul 03, 12:33

Data is data, but your explanation is based on your feelings. RogerMore Jul 03, 13:13

A voice from the wilderness. A modern day Cassandra. A sage for our time. {nm} Wellespring Jul 03, 14:16

No, many are mocked for claiming CMARV is not a success when all evidence says otherwise. {nm} Antibody Jul 03, 08:37

The issue was the criticism at those who didn't like CM, it got pretty heated for awhile. I think CM's box office recovered late in Spring. {nm} VictorY Jul 03, 08:50

Because the strong hold proves that it was popular. You conflated your dislike with the film with it not being generally liked {nm} numbersix_99 Jul 03, 14:24

Captain Marvel made people want to skip SLOPier and TS4? Haaaaaaaaaaaaaa HurricaneKid Jul 03, 08:52

No. Wellespring Jul 03, 06:05

that's too bad...I already loved the theater experience, and now we have recliners, reserved seating and Dolby Cinema {nm} tealfan Jul 03, 08:54





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 25000 21.87 (-0.96)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 5.70 (-0.04)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 5.70 (-0.04)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 12500 40.50 (-0.93)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 4.79 (-1.25)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 24.12 (+0.62)          Gladiator II aka Gladiator 2 (GLAD2) 24914 169.60 (-0.07)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 19596 416.90 (+0.04)          Venom: The Last Dance aka Venom (VENM3) 58 170.19 (-0.33)          The Return (TRETU) 149999 4.01 (+0.32)          The Return (TRETU) 149999 4.01 (+0.32)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 36.02 (+1.53)          Kung Fu Panda 4 $155M Blockbuste (PAND4.BW) 25000 15.04 (+0.28)          The Invite (TINVT) 50000 16.46 (+0.08)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 1000 10.00 (0.00)          Humane (HUMNE) 1 0.69 (-0.08)          Breathe (BRETE) 1 2.54 (-0.08)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Methuselah (METHU) 50000 0.18 (+0.02)          In the Grey aka Untitled Guy Rit (NGREY) 3000 31.39 (-0.03)          The Monkey (MONKY) 50000 20.17 (+0.71)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $100 (GHST5.BW) 25000 9.59 (+0.16)          Sight (SIGHT) 30000 8.79 (+0.01)          Highlander (HIGHL) 50000 23.56 (+0.04)          The Wasp (TWASP) 149999 0.53 (-0.07)          The Wasp (TWASP) 150000 0.53 (-0.07)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Just Watch Me (JUSWM) 100000 8.16 (+0.18)          The Fall Guy H$50 Put (FALGY.PU) 25000 4.64 (+0.06)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 22.08 (-0.55)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.BW) 25000 8.97 (+0.16)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 149999 22.08 (-0.55)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4.PU) 25000 3.22 (+0.10)          Challengers (CHALN) 150000 40.47 (+0.98)          Challengers (CHALN) 149999 40.47 (+0.98)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 36.02 (+1.53)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 4.79 (-1.25)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 149999 4.79 (-1.25)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.75 (+2.75)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 4.79 (-1.25)          Bill Skarsgard (BSKAR) 25000 82.04 (-1.65)          Ballerina (BLRNA) 16 70.91 (+0.16)          Civil War (CVLWR) 59 61.50 (+0.59)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 286.44 (+1.27)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 286.44 (+1.27)          The Monkey (MONKY) 72 20.17 (+0.71)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 50000 4.79 (-1.25)          High and Low (HILOW) 2000 24.78 (0.00)