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For them to even consider streaming would mean they believe that 2 and 3 have a chance at severely underperforming.
And the type of underperformance would have to be sub $500m per film worldwide. Otherwise there'd be no reason not to release them.
I imagine the issue is more about budget. The sequels are getting $1 billion, roughly $250m each. I wouldn't be surprised if over half that was spent on 2 & 3. So James is probably looking at a scenario where these films perform well, but not at the level of the first. If they make under a billion each (worldwide), then I imagine the studio is going to want to scale back the budget for 4 & 5. There's likely a provision in the contract they signed that has specific thresholds. And James Cameron is getting a cut of the revenues, but likely after the budget is recouped.
So I wonder if this is just a worry that the films won't be top 10 all time hits, and then James is looking at spending another few years making 4 & 5 on a tight budget, with execs breathing down his neck, and knowing he's not going to make a windfall from them. He may be setting the stage for a renegotiation. Or maybe he wants to move on to something else.
Could also depend on merch. I don't think Avatar 1 merch did well. That's a big, big driver for Star Wars, MCU, Pixar, and most Disney films. Even things like GoT were bringing in billions each year off of merch (though that market basically dried up after that finale, literally killed a multi-billion dollar franchise overnight). So if Avatar 2 & 3 perform well, but have no long term prospects for merch (at the level of other franchises), then it could end up being something that Disney sees as cannabilizing its other offerings. Once 2 & 3 are released, and Disney has their Avatar offerings in their parks, there's little that 4 & 5 can do to boost them.
Maybe 4&5 are best put on the back burner, until some "revolutionary" technology (glassless 3d) becomes available for theaters.
Empire: James Cameron Might Not Direct Avatar 4 And 5 Jul 04, 07:48
On AVATAR4 "I hope I get to make it" "depends on market forces" (he has filmed a little of i) {nm} Jul 04, 07:58
Seems like he's coming up with a backup plan should 4&5 get sent to streaming. {nm} Jul 04, 08:00
In other words he’s not gonna waste his time if it goes straight to streaming? {nm} Jul 04, 08:08
For them to even consider streaming would mean they believe that 2 and 3 have a chance at severely underperforming. Jul 04, 08:43
Also depends if Chapek and Kareem Daniel are still making key decisions end of this year/next (new contracts or not) Jul 04, 09:13
(make a decision early-Mid 2023 on #4) {nm} Jul 04, 09:14