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Having done this for a very long time....
And having seen movies like The Marvels disappoint despite being the sequel to a HUGE blockbuster (not to mention Joker 2), it's really tough to make comparisons. Even Winter Soldier was so long ago and probably was capitalizing on the height of Marvel post-Avengers. Even though the Falcon/Winter Soldier show was much more popular on Disney+ than Ms. Marvel and it seems to tie into the MCU more organically, we still have no proof that anyone wants to see Anthony Mackie leading a movie as Captain America. Having Harrison Ford featured front and center is a smart move because any borderline racist white Marvel fan might give it a chance for him... but I doubt he's going to have the same draw as Black Panther. I still think $100 million four-day is doable, but I'll be curious to see when Disney screens for critics and allows reviews to run, as that will tell us whether the quality is on par with Winter Soldier... or with Antman: Quantumania, which IMO Is still the biggest MCU disappointment to date.
Quorum (Which is not all that great at tracking) via DL: CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD $86-95 million 3 Day Jan 12, 13:02
Allegedly tickets go on sale Friday, January 17, 2025. {nm} Jan 12, 13:03
What's a good movie to compare its opening to? WINTER SOLDIER? THOR 4? THE SUICIDE SQUAD? SHAZAM 2? Jan 12, 17:28
Having done this for a very long time.... Jan 13, 03:29
I guess that's a long-winded way of me saying that comparisons can only go so far. Jan 13, 03:30
I think it's pretty safe to say the quality is not going to be on par with Winter Solider. :) {nm} Jan 13, 08:13
point of contention with the "borderline racist white Marvel fan" bit Jan 13, 09:24
I still think that most people aren't aware of all the reshoots {nm} Jan 13, 09:52
thanks for the answer, TWW Jan 13, 13:55
They could be going off BOT which had given ~$96m D3 Jan 12, 20:44
They're going off their own survey data that they collect {nm} Jan 12, 21:51