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Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm}

Posted by: ShawnMR on Jul 02, 14:27 in response to notfabio's post mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm}   notfabio on Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm}   Antibody on Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy.   BionicMoron, EAP leader on Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm}   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm}   xiayun on Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though   xiayun on Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm}   numbersix_99 on Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm}   ShawnMR on Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm}   baronblacksheep on Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday.   Roger More on Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm}   dioneta on Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm}   Roger More on Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm}   notfabio on Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm}   accountant_4_Jesus on Jul 03, 07:55





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Across The River And Into The Tr (ATRIT) 2000 1.71 (0.00)         Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 3378 7.54 (0.00)         The Foreigner (FRGNR) 10000 15.93 (0.00)         Smurfs: The Lost Village H$25 Ca (SMRF3.CA) 100 2.01 (+0.01)         The Only Living Boy in New York (OLBNY) 1000 3.28 (-0.05)         Smurfs: The Lost Village - Openi (SMRF3.OW) 100 25.16 (+0.16)         Smurfs: The Lost Village H$25 Pu (SMRF3.PU) 1000 2.04 (+0.04)         Pierce Brosnan (PBROS) 100 18.70 (-0.04)         Fifty Shades Darker $115M Blockb (50SH2.BW) 20000 5.42 (-0.02)         Going in Style H$10 Call (GOINS.CA) 500 1.97 (-0.03)         Octavia Spencer (OSPEN) 5 127.71 (0.00)         Going in Style H$10 Put (GOINS.PU) 500 2.03 (+0.03)         Assassination Nation (ASNAT) 100000 9.28 (+1.28)         The Rats of NIMH (RNIMH) 24744 42.17 (+0.10)         The Post (TPOST) 10000 48.28 (-1.78)         Oprah Winfrey (OWINF) 5 121.34 (0.00)         The Wolf Man (TWLFM) 99999 32.07 (+1.05)         Angry Birds 2 (ANGR2) 99999 27.45 (+2.34)         Orlando Bloom (OBLOO) 1 124.02 (0.00)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 99999 25.70 (+2.65)         The LEGO Batman Movie $155M Bloc (LBATM.BW) 10000 13.54 (+0.10)         Split $110M Blockbuster Warrant (SPLIT.BW) 1000 17.46 (0.00)         3 Idiotas (3IDIO) 100000 4.70 (+1.81)         Going in Style H$10 Call (GOINS.CA) 20000 1.97 (-0.03)         Smurfs: The Lost Village H$25 Ca (SMRF3.CA) 9000 2.01 (+0.01)         Smurfs: The Lost Village H$25 Pu (SMRF3.PU) 20000 2.04 (+0.04)         Smurfs: The Lost Village - Openi (SMRF3.OW) 20000 25.16 (+0.16)         Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 150 30.05 (-0.36)         Going in Style H$10 Call (GOINS.CA) 3000 1.97 (-0.03)         Going in Style H$10 Put (GOINS.PU) 12000 2.03 (+0.03)         Assassination Nation (ASNAT) 100000 9.28 (+1.28)         Going in Style - Opening Weekend (GOINS.OW) 20000 10.11 (+0.11)         Power Rangers (MMPR) 31305 76.84 (+0.40)         Robotech (RTECH) 100000 16.55 (+1.68)         Assassination Nation (ASNAT) 100000 9.28 (+1.28)         Hot Summer Nights (HOTSN) 100000 4.60 (+1.16)         Robotech (RTECH) 100000 16.55 (+1.68)         3 Idiotas (3IDIO) 100000 4.70 (+1.81)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 1 25.70 (+2.65)         Angry Birds 2 (ANGR2) 100000 27.45 (+2.34)         Madagascar 4 (MADG4) 100000 25.70 (+2.65)         The Domestics (DMSTC) 5000 8.77 (-0.07)         Cats (CATS) 5001 19.11 (0.00)         The Commune (COMUN) 8352 1.14 (-0.01)         The Zookeeper's Wife H$5 Put (ZKPWF.PU) 20000 2.45 (-0.02)         Ghost in the Shell H$35 Put (GSHEL.PU) 20000 2.90 (+0.01)         Ghost in the Shell H$35 Put (GSHEL.PU) 20000 2.90 (+0.01)         The Boss Baby H$30 Call (BOSSB.CA) 20000 3.33 (-0.02)         The Boss Baby H$30 Call (BOSSB.CA) 20000 3.33 (-0.02)         Underwater (UNDWT) 25000 23.15 (-0.01)