Three new films join another action-packed weekend at the box office. Liam Neeson [LNEES] figures to lead the way with the R-rated man vs. nature thriller The Grey [TGREY] about plane crash survivors stranded in the Alaskan wilderness. Buzz had been building since the first trailer showed Neeson fending off a pack of hungry wolves with fists of broken mini-bottles. Reviews have been surprising good for this type of film, though new distributor Open Road may not be able to match the marketing muscle of Warner Bros., which opened Unknown to $21.9 million last year. The Grey could hunt down around $15 million from 3185 locations.
Underworld: Awakening’s [UNDW4] number one opening weekend was likely front-loaded by fans of the series. Based on the drop-off of previous installments, the fourth film looks to tumble more than 55% to $11 million.
Red Tails [REDTL] out-performed expectations in its debut. The older target audience may prevent the WWII actioner from falling more than 45% to $10.5 million.
Sam Worthington [SWORT] stars as the descriptively titled Man on a Ledge [MNLDG]. Summit has sold the PG-13 rated thriller as a heist film, but reviews have not been kind. Stepping out in 2998 theaters, Man on a Ledge may walk away with $10.5 million.
Katherine Heigl [KHEIG] stars in the comedy One for the Money [1MONY] based on a popular book series. The PG-13 rated film has not been tracking well, so Lionsgate is offering a deal through Groupon, a strategy they employed previously for The Lincoln Lawyer. Even without much competition for the female target audience, One for the Money may not even match the opening of Heigl’s last lead vehicle Life as We Know It’s $14.5 million. Playing in 2737 theaters, One for the Money could settle for $10 million.
With Best Pictures one of its two Oscar nominations, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close [ELAIC] should hold up well in its second weekend of wide release. The sentimental drama might slip 25% to $7.5 million.
That’s the whisper from the trading floor.
Tag(s): LNEES, TGREY, UNDW4, REDTL, SWORT, MNLDG, KHEIG, 1MONY, ELAIC