SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Will moviegoers commit to The Five-Year Engagement?

Four new films will close out the month of April before the summer blockbuster season begins next weekend. The romantic comedy The Five-Year Engagement [5YENG] appears to have the best shot of topping the weekend box office. Jason Segel [JSEGE] and Emily Blunt [EBLUN] star as a couple taking a long, circuitous route to their wedding. Segel’s previous collaboration with director Nicholas Stoller [NSTOL], Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with $17.7 million in 2008 and established both as players in comedy. Universal has hyped the R-rated film’s connection to Bridesmaids, but the trailers and reviews have not been as good as the 2011 smash. Nevertheless, there are materials appealing to both genders, which should attract the dating crowd. Debuting in 2936 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement should walk away with $20 million.

Last weekend’s top earner Think Like a Man [TLKAM] broke out across all demographics. With good word of mouth, Think Like a Man should hold better than 50% at arounc $18 million.

Pirates! Band of Misfits [PIRTS] is Aardman Studios’ first stop-motion animated film since 2005’s Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, which opened with $16.0 million. Their last effort, the CG-animated Arthur Christmas opened to just $12.1 million last November. British humor just doesn’t translate broadly in the States. The PG-rated family film does have in its favor of being the only animated offering since The Lorax. Pirates! could loot $14.5 million from 3358 locations.

With its female target audience, the romance The Lucky One [LUCON] may decline 45% to $12 million.

John Cusack [JOHNC] plays Edgar Allan Poe in the period thriller The Raven [TRAVN]. The Relativity release markets itself as a R-rated version of Sherlock Holmes with the horror elements of Saw.  Unfortunately, the film lacks buzz and holds little audience appeal outside older men. Landing in 2203 theaters, The Raven could quoth a figure of $10 million.

Safe [SAFE] is the latest R-rated action vehicle starring Jason Statham [JSTAT]. Lionsgate’s marketing has done little to make the film stand out.  With only hardcore fans likely to turn out, Safe is unlikely to match the opening of Statham’s last two efforts, Killer Elite’s $9.3 million or The Mechanic’s $11.3 million. Playing in 2266 theaters, Safe may unlock just $7.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): 5YENG, JSEGE, EBLUN, NSTOL, TLKAM, PIRTS, LUCON, JOHNC, TRAVN, SAFE, JSTAT

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 26, 2012 @ 03:54 PM 10283 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



Clay (CLAY) 100000 92.28 (+2.28)          Clay (CLAY) 10000 92.28 (+2.28)          Harrison Ford (HFORD) 3297 92.94 (-0.03)          The Dog Stars (DOGST) 150000 22.02 (+0.06)          King Conan (CONA2) 1000 54.33 (0.00)          Clay (CLAY) 77065 92.28 (+2.28)          Remain (REMAN) 149999 72.70 (-0.24)          Clay (CLAY) 72935 92.28 (+2.28)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 3 2.07 (+0.16)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 150000 2.07 (+0.16)          La Bola Negra aka The Black Ball (LBNEG) 150000 2.16 (-0.02)          Angel and the Badman (ANBAD) 150000 11.82 (+0.13)          Kieran Culkin (KCULK) 25000 8.16 (+0.05)          Babies (BBIES) 10000 16.24 (0.00)          Still Life (STILF) 10000 6.72 (+0.62)          Clay (CLAY) 10000 92.28 (+2.28)          Snake Island (SNKIS) 10 16.90 (-0.14)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 1 97.66 (-0.08)          Ghost Rider (GHSRD) 1 154.46 (-0.05)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Put (HOTBS.PU) 25000 1.73 (-0.02)          Closing Night (CLSNT) 100 2.29 (-0.01)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Call (HOTBS.CA) 25000 2.67 (-0.02)          Heart of the Beast - Opening Wee (HOTBS.OW) 100000 16.53 (+0.05)          Runner (RUNNR) 150000 15.29 (-0.26)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 150000 5.28 (+0.11)          The Julia Set (TJULS) 150000 1.71 (+0.06)          Still Life (STILF) 150000 6.72 (+0.62)          Star Trek (TREK4) 100268 30.97 (+0.61)          Clay (CLAY) 150000 92.28 (+2.28)          Clay (CLAY) 150000 92.28 (+2.28)          Still Life (STILF) 150000 6.72 (+0.62)          The Julia Set (TJULS) 150000 1.71 (+0.06)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 150000 2.07 (+0.16)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 150000 2.07 (+0.16)          Snake Island (SNKIS) 20000 16.90 (-0.14)          Lucy Boomer (LUCYB) 50000 6.08 (+0.41)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 11.78 (+0.94)          Still Life (STILF) 150000 6.72 (+0.62)          Still Life (STILF) 150000 6.72 (+0.62)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 150000 2.07 (+0.16)          Always Lalisa (ALISA) 150000 2.07 (+0.16)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 18.64 (-0.46)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 18.64 (-0.46)          Clay (CLAY) 100000 92.28 (+2.28)          Clay (CLAY) 50000 92.28 (+2.28)