SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Will moviegoers commit to The Five-Year Engagement?

Four new films will close out the month of April before the summer blockbuster season begins next weekend. The romantic comedy The Five-Year Engagement [5YENG] appears to have the best shot of topping the weekend box office. Jason Segel [JSEGE] and Emily Blunt [EBLUN] star as a couple taking a long, circuitous route to their wedding. Segel’s previous collaboration with director Nicholas Stoller [NSTOL], Forgetting Sarah Marshall opened with $17.7 million in 2008 and established both as players in comedy. Universal has hyped the R-rated film’s connection to Bridesmaids, but the trailers and reviews have not been as good as the 2011 smash. Nevertheless, there are materials appealing to both genders, which should attract the dating crowd. Debuting in 2936 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement should walk away with $20 million.

Last weekend’s top earner Think Like a Man [TLKAM] broke out across all demographics. With good word of mouth, Think Like a Man should hold better than 50% at arounc $18 million.

Pirates! Band of Misfits [PIRTS] is Aardman Studios’ first stop-motion animated film since 2005’s Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, which opened with $16.0 million. Their last effort, the CG-animated Arthur Christmas opened to just $12.1 million last November. British humor just doesn’t translate broadly in the States. The PG-rated family film does have in its favor of being the only animated offering since The Lorax. Pirates! could loot $14.5 million from 3358 locations.

With its female target audience, the romance The Lucky One [LUCON] may decline 45% to $12 million.

John Cusack [JOHNC] plays Edgar Allan Poe in the period thriller The Raven [TRAVN]. The Relativity release markets itself as a R-rated version of Sherlock Holmes with the horror elements of Saw.  Unfortunately, the film lacks buzz and holds little audience appeal outside older men. Landing in 2203 theaters, The Raven could quoth a figure of $10 million.

Safe [SAFE] is the latest R-rated action vehicle starring Jason Statham [JSTAT]. Lionsgate’s marketing has done little to make the film stand out.  With only hardcore fans likely to turn out, Safe is unlikely to match the opening of Statham’s last two efforts, Killer Elite’s $9.3 million or The Mechanic’s $11.3 million. Playing in 2266 theaters, Safe may unlock just $7.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): 5YENG, JSEGE, EBLUN, NSTOL, TLKAM, PIRTS, LUCON, JOHNC, TRAVN, SAFE, JSTAT

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 26, 2012 @ 03:54 PM 10210 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



David Robert Mitchell (DRMIT) 25000 22.54 (+0.54)          The Adventures of Cliff Booth (TAOCB) 149999 14.09 (+0.05)          Hexed (HEXED) 7141 118.72 (+0.35)          The Fix aka Hotel Tehran (HTHRN) 150000 5.13 (-0.05)          Ken Russell's The Devil (KRSTD) 150000 1.93 (-0.07)          When Darkness Loves Us (WDLUS) 150000 7.86 (-0.34)          Jackass: Best and Last - Opening (JCKA6.OW) 20000 17.22 (+0.02)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 25000 407.40 (-0.37)          Disclosure Day (SKIES) 10000 119.17 (-0.09)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 787 18.39 (+0.70)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 6777 18.39 (+0.70)          Wilford Nappy Pulawa biopic (NAPPY) 8888 51.98 (-0.16)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 787 18.39 (+0.70)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.03 (+0.47)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.03 (+0.47)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 150000 5.99 (-0.31)          Toy Story 5 - Opening Weekend (TOYS5.OW) 100000 145.34 (+0.50)          When Darkness Loves Us (WDLUS) 150000 7.86 (-0.34)          Runner (RUNNR) 889 15.87 (+0.31)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 9899 18.39 (+0.70)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.03 (+0.47)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.03 (+0.47)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 12.28 (+0.59)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 12.28 (+0.59)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 150000 14.08 (+0.65)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.65 (-0.65)          The Origin of the World (TOOTW) 150000 17.65 (-0.65)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 150000 14.08 (+0.65)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 150000 12.88 (-0.59)          The Comebacker (CMBAC) 100000 28.13 (-0.10)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Ken Russell's The Devil (KRSTD) 150000 1.93 (-0.07)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 75000 12.45 (-0.01)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 18.39 (+0.70)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 18.39 (+0.70)          The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 150000 23.38 (+1.00)          The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 150000 23.38 (+1.00)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 150000 5.99 (-0.31)          When Darkness Loves Us (WDLUS) 150000 7.86 (-0.34)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 150000 5.99 (-0.31)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.85 (-0.30)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.85 (-0.30)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Flywheel: Ignition of the Soul (FLYWH) 150000 10.14 (-1.11)          Jane (JANE1) 150000 12.28 (+0.59)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 18.39 (+0.70)          Polly Pocket (POLYP) 150000 18.39 (+0.70)