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Whisper Numbers: Pain & Gain muscles in on the box office

The Dwayne Johnson box office tour of 2013 continues as [TROCK] opens his third movie in 3 months, with another on the way in May. To top it all off, The Rock recently performed in Wrestlemania where he dropped the WWE Championship title. While he risks over-exposure, it shouldn’t affect the R-rated action comedy Pain & Gain [PAING], which also stars Mark Wahlberg [MWAHL]. Although his last film Broken City managed just $9.5 million over the MLK Jr. holiday weekend, Wahlberg had two R-rated hits in 2012 with Contraband and Ted. Johnson’s last solo effort Snitch debuted with $13.7 million in February, while G.I. JOE: Retaliation opened over $40 million. In Pain & Gain, the two likeable stars play bodybuilders who get in over their heads in an extortion scheme. The Paramount release has all the trademark flash of director Michael Bay [MBAY], who returns to his Bad Boys roots after completing the blockbuster Transformers trilogy. The film has received mixed reviews, which wouldn’t matter to the target audience of young guys.  Opening at 3277 locations, Pain & Gain may lift upwards of $22 million.

Tom Cruise proved he still got it by opening the original sci-fi film Oblivion [OBLVN].  With mixed word of mouth even amongst its target audience, Oblivion could slide 45% to about $19 million. The baseball drama 42 [42] looks to drive in another $11 million in its third outing.

With all the testosterone at the box office, Lionsgate counterprograms the weekend with The Big Wedding [TBWED]. The romantic comedy features an all-star cast led by Katherine Heigl [KHEIG], Amanda Seyfried [ASEYF], Robert De Niro [RDENI] and Diane Keaton [DKEAT], though none are a reliable draw.  Buzz has been light on the film whose release was delayed from last October.  Unfortunately, the R-rating will limit the audience to older women, a hard to reach demographic that do not rush out opening weekend.  Lionsgate is even promoting a two for one ticket deal, further demonstrating a lack of confidence in the product. Playing in 2633 theaters, The Big Wedding may collect $11 million.

After 3 weeks of limited release where it has earned $1 million, The Company You Keep [COYKP] expands wide into 807 theaters. Shia LaBeouf [SLABE] plays a reporter out to expose the true identity of a lawyer and single father who was a former 1970s antiwar radical activist, played by Robert Redford [RREDF]. The Company You Keep could uncover $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TROCK, PAING, MWAHL, MBAY, OBLVN, 42, TBWED, KHEIG, ASEYF, RDENI, DKEAT, COYKP, SLABE, RREDF

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, April 25, 2013 @ 03:25 PM 4085 views

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Melissa Leo (MLEO) 25000 29.43 (+0.98)          Lucky Strike (LCKYS) 22 5.94 (0.00)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 17 4.63 (+0.03)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 21 6.69 (+0.11)          Control (COTRL) 14 6.01 (+0.45)          Keke Palmer (KPALM) 25000 62.18 (-1.29)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 1 230.52 (-0.66)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 100000 138.73 (-4.07)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 150000 4.63 (+0.03)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 150000 6.69 (+0.11)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 149999 13.81 (+0.38)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.01 (+0.45)          Lucky Strike (LCKYS) 150000 5.94 (0.00)          Golshifteh Farahani (GFARA) 25000 55.04 (-1.16)          Eiza Gonzalez (EGONZ) 25000 12.24 (+0.49)          Don Cheadle (DCHEA) 25000 122.52 (+1.86)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 150000 230.52 (-0.66)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 5 418.06 (+2.21)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 50000 408.29 (+0.52)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 50000 418.06 (+2.21)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 16.89 (-1.77)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 109.79 (-0.61)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 109.79 (-0.61)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 10000 5.20 (-0.17)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 150000 5.20 (-0.17)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 50000 243.48 (+0.29)          The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 150000 23.73 (+1.35)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 53.87 (-1.17)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 53.87 (-1.17)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 10000 22.22 (-0.69)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 3.76 (+0.09)          Power Ballad (PWRBL) 150000 3.76 (+0.09)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 150000 22.22 (-0.69)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 16.89 (-1.77)          Dominic Sessa (DSESS) 25000 26.75 (-0.37)          Dominic Sessa (DSESS) 25000 26.75 (-0.37)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 45634 418.06 (+2.21)          Ariana DeBose (ADEBO) 25000 16.25 (0.00)          Ariana DeBose (ADEBO) 25000 16.25 (0.00)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 140311 138.73 (-4.07)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 65000 10.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)