SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: : Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides washes ashore.

Four years after completing a Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, Disney returns with a fourth installment Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides [PIRT4]. Johnny Depp’s [JDEPP] beloved Captain Sparrow is now the central character with an added love interest in the form of Penelope Cruz [PCRUZ]. Although the last film At World’s End banked $114 million during its opening over the 3-day portion of Memorial Weekend 2007, most fans were disappointment with the incomprehensible sequel. Franchise fatigue will lead to a drop-off for the fourth film, but the question is by how much. The talent involved has emphasized the story as straightforward this time, while Disney marketing has focused on the characters, new and old. The first in the series to be 3D should entice audiences to the PG-13 rated film.  Though the higher price and prevalence of 3D could also cause some to take a wait-and-see approach.  Buckling into 4155 theaters, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides could swash about $87 million.

Thor [THOR] had a decent hold last weekend against mid-sized openers, but will lose 3D and IMAX screens to a direct competitor in Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. The Marvel superhero may secure another $19 million.

After breaking out in its debut, Bridesmaids [BRDSM] has been beating Thor during the weekdays. With great word of mouth, the comedy is poised to be a sleeper hit with long legs. A 30% decay would put Bridesmaids around $18 million.

Heading into its fourth weekend, Fast Five [FFUR5] still has a lot left in its tank and should fuel another $12 million.

The male-targeted Priest [PRIES] looks to drop more than 50% in its second weekend to around $7 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): PIRT4, JDEPP, PCRUZ, THOR, BRDSM, FFUR5, PRIES

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 19, 2011 @ 04:05 PM 4664 views

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