HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

I can (I hope).

Posted by: DTravel on Mar 14, 11:59 in response to DTXbro's post Could someone attempt to identify any reasoning...

This may be very basic and if it comes across as "talking down to you" I apologize, I don't mean it to.  You have been here a lot longer than I have.

If one thinks the OW will exceed $125M, then shorting the Put is like buying the Call long.  Vice versa, if one thinks it will do less than $125M, then long the Put and short the Call.

Buying Call is betting BO > $125M  -  Shorting Call is betting BO < $125M

Buying Put is betting BO < $125M  -  Shorting Put is betting BO > $125M

Buying Put = Shorting Call    and    Buying Call = Shorting Put

Its kind of doubling your bet.  Hope that makes sense.

Could someone attempt to identify any reasoning underlying a short for either the put or call for the Hunger Games $125MM opening weekend. DTXbro Mar 14, 09:34

spite ports? but otherwise, no non-sequel has ever opened that big before. could it open that big? yes. would every player think so? no. islander Mar 14, 10:24

or i misread your question. oops :) yeah that i dont know. maybe they wont be around later on? {nm} islander Mar 14, 10:25

I can (I hope). DTravel Mar 14, 11:59

The max profit from shorting a H$2 option is H$40,000, while the potential loss in huge if HGAME opens much greater or much less than 125. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:26

Not claiming its a risk-free option, just that some people will grub every penny they can. ;) {nm} DTravel Mar 14, 16:07

But your reasoning was flawed. It's not "doubling your bet". {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 16:21

I think I said "kind of doubling" - didn't mean to imply it was an exact doubling. *shrug* My mistake. {nm} DTravel Mar 14, 16:50

I understood what you meant. dave3626 Mar 15, 09:46

I knew what you meant, but it could be misleading to newbies to equate like you did. Buying Put =/ Shorting Call Buying Call =/ Shorting Put {nm} Antibody Mar 15, 10:11

You've probably answered this elsewhere at another time, but ..why did you drop "D.Mac"? {nm} dave3626 Mar 15, 10:52

I just decided to stick to my username after the HSX redesign introduced the profile page. {nm} Antibody Mar 15, 12:42

You may continue to hope, but it still won't make sense. It's a sucker bet that even most suckers would avoid {nm} DTXbro Mar 14, 16:48





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