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I understood what you meant.

Posted by: dave3626 (a.k.a del_VUA_Dave3626) on Mar 15, 09:46 in response to DTravel's post I think I said "kind of doubling" - didn't mean...

If a trader believes it will open under 125, then it does make sense to short the call. It is, as you said, essentially the same bet as longing the put, which one in this situation is probably doing as well (although as DMac pointed out, the strategy is not an exact numerical equivalent of doubling down.) By the same logic, it does makes sense to short the put while being long on the call if you think it will open above 125. So you're right, shorts make plenty of sense, assuming the movie will go in the direction you think it will.

But if one is looking to grab every penny they can, then overall it makes more sense to wait for those predictable price moves that happen day after the options are activated. That's what I usually do.

Knowing that most of the time there's enough interest in both sides of the bet to send both options up in price, I go long on both on Wednesdays regardless of what I think will happen opening weekend. I wait for the predictable early price move which makes for a great dROI, then take my profit and put my money elsewhere until opening weekend, at which time I check out the prices, compare with latest predictions and possibly get back in on the options before they halt.

Could someone attempt to identify any reasoning underlying a short for either the put or call for the Hunger Games $125MM opening weekend. DTXbro Mar 14, 09:34

spite ports? but otherwise, no non-sequel has ever opened that big before. could it open that big? yes. would every player think so? no. islander Mar 14, 10:24

or i misread your question. oops :) yeah that i dont know. maybe they wont be around later on? {nm} islander Mar 14, 10:25

I can (I hope). DTravel Mar 14, 11:59

The max profit from shorting a H$2 option is H$40,000, while the potential loss in huge if HGAME opens much greater or much less than 125. {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:26

Not claiming its a risk-free option, just that some people will grub every penny they can. ;) {nm} DTravel Mar 14, 16:07

But your reasoning was flawed. It's not "doubling your bet". {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 16:21

I think I said "kind of doubling" - didn't mean to imply it was an exact doubling. *shrug* My mistake. {nm} DTravel Mar 14, 16:50

I understood what you meant. dave3626 Mar 15, 09:46

I knew what you meant, but it could be misleading to newbies to equate like you did. Buying Put =/ Shorting Call Buying Call =/ Shorting Put {nm} Antibody Mar 15, 10:11

You've probably answered this elsewhere at another time, but ..why did you drop "D.Mac"? {nm} dave3626 Mar 15, 10:52

I just decided to stick to my username after the HSX redesign introduced the profile page. {nm} Antibody Mar 15, 12:42