Playing & Trading Strategy

Understand the mechanisms that make the game work - like moviestock adjusts and delists and starbond adjusts.

At the beginning, focus on the investments that provide the most gain for the least risk.  As your portfolio grows, start making riskier investments that could provide big gains, or low-risk investments that are less profitable, depending on your playing style.

Become better at predicting openers, so you can be ahead of price movements for upcoming releases.  For me, the key questions to ask are: what is the target audience? Is the target audience going to want to see this movie? Are people outside the target audience going to want to see it too?

It is also worth developing an understanding of the different target markets, their movie-going habits and how they differ from the HSX community.  Teenagers are more likely to go to the movies on Friday with their friends, and on a movie's first weekend.  Adults are more likely to go on Saturday and Sunday - especially if they are taking their children, and they will not rush out to see it opening weekend, but are more likely to go see movies later if their friends have told them positive things.  The HSX community has fewer women, older people, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans and church-going Christians compared to the general population, and the market frequently gets it wrong when it comes to movies aimed at audiences in those demographics.

On that count, for weekend openers you should always consider the received logic but not worry too much about ignoring it.  There is a lot of group-think when it comes to opening weekend predictions - and movies often open way higher (or way lower).  Timing is important though - even if you disagree with the group-think it can be costly to go against the flow.  So play along with the group-think while it is profitable.  Which leads us to...

Learn how to play the players - anticipate what other traders are likely to do and then trade accordingly.  Traders will respond to news in predictable ways.  Good news = price goes up, bad news = price goes down.  Similarly, many players will play the starbond bounce, by flipping starbonds after they adjust, if they expect the starbond price will move in the opposite direction.  If you're a very active player, reset trade and day-trade.  But always understand why the price is moving - because of news? Daily momentum? Traders parking money for the long-term? And knowing when to take your profits and liquidate your investment is the crucial part in this.  Predicting the direction of movement is easy - understanding how big the movement will be is harder.

Understand the seasonal swings of the HSX year.  Blockbuster movies are released in summer and over the holiday season.  So interest in HSX peaks at these times, and prices will rise.  After the good times are over - in late January/early February and September - prices will start to fall.  Long-term players should position their portfolio accordingly.

Tracking the investments that are not earning you money is crucial.  If an investment is not making money, liquidate it or flip it.

Understand the risks you are taking and manage then.  For example, if there is no news or adjust scheduled, most moviestocks and starbonds will drop in price over the longer term, so it's good to short them.  The risk is that news on a low-price stock will cause a sudden uptick in price and cost me, but you can manage the risk by watching the news closely. If you're not going to manage the risk, don't make the investment (or accept the inevitable costs when they happen).

Use the information sources that are available to help in your decisions - like the starbond websites, the PABS, etc.  Develop your own information tools if you want to do better.

Measure your performance.  Join a league and measure it against other traders.  If you are behind, figure out what you could be doing better.  Set goals and targets based on your past performance (and your peers') and try to meet/exceed them.  This is harder to judge at the early stage - challenging targets can easily be exceeded in a good starbond week or a super-profitable adjust, but be very difficult in a slow week.