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Playing & Trading Strategy

Because the intention of every trader is the question being asked....

Posted by: The Digital Mariner (a.k.a SWCherry) on Jul 11, 13:03 in response to Antibody's post I can not explain the behavior of every trader on why...

If you don't want to answer then just don't answer, but being deliberately obtuse is unnecessary.

The question is why does one security react dramatically while similar ones with similar conditions do not.

You point out we traders can't know 100% what volume and direction the trades are - but YOU do.

How hard would it be to say something to the effect of:

"Last week/month bond AAAAA dropped $xx.xx in the first 12 hours after adjust, a seemingly disproportunate amount compared to other bonds that adjusted the day before. You might be interested to know that traders that morning sold/shorted shares at a ratio of 25:1 compared to longs/covers.  This caused a massive drop in the price. Other bonds that adjusted that day (like BBBBB or CCCCC) had sell ratios of 2:1 and 1.1:1 leaving their prices much closer to their TAG the day after adjust.  The software didn't apply "brakes" to slow the drop in this case because the transactions did not exceed the brake threshold until the 10th hour after the price unfroze and it had already dropped $xx.xx"

 

Readers can come to their own conclusions why traders might be buying/selling/shorting/covering any given stock, but when similar stocks doing similar volume at similar prices in similar situations move similarly except for one, an explanation is not inappropriate. 

One might even argue in a world of twitter customer service, constant updating and adapting apps, and growing communities that it's not only appropriate to offer such insight, it's required.  The old "it's a free website/service/game/etc so don't complain" mantra of a few years ago has been shredded by the facebooks, angry birds, consumerists, twitters, and reddits of the world.

What are you hiding?

One of these things is not like the other..... (and I wish I knew why...) The Digital Mariner Jul 10, 07:29

I agree...and BONDS did not get on the elevator for AAAAA but even stranger is Buy BONDS 20 Jul 10, 08:34

and in the time it took me to type that up, it dropped another $2 on ~200k flips from long to short. Breaks? What breaks? {nm} The Digital Mariner Jul 10, 12:06

'brakes' not 'breaks' {nm} RazorHawk Jul 10, 13:58

There is no way for you know 100% what volume and direction all those shares were. {nm} Antibody Jul 10, 14:05

That was meant for "The Digital Mariner on Jul 10, 12:06" {nm} Antibody Jul 10, 14:05

At this point, that is true. But YOU do and could easily shed some light on the situation without fully divuldging the secret sauce. The Digital Mariner Jul 10, 19:02

I can not explain the behavior of every trader on why he/she made the trade he/she made. {nm} Antibody Jul 11, 10:40

Because the intention of every trader is the question being asked.... The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 13:03

Again, you do not know what each and every transaction going through. You are only ASSUMING that you know. Antibody Jul 11, 13:42

Again, I never claimed to know each and every transaction or assume that I know. But YOU do The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 17:52

If I even give hints on the information you seek, then any smart trader will figure out ways around it. Some already do. Antibody Jul 12, 10:33

Revealing the kind of information you give in your example WOULD be giving away the formulas used. {nm} DTravel Jul 11, 15:24

So don't be as detailed, use more vauge adjectives. I just would like assurances it's valid movement beyond "trust me, it's legit" {nm} The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 18:11

Anything vague enough to keep the secrecy would boil down to Antibody's answers. DTravel Jul 11, 19:07

Maybe the timing of the trades and the resultant effects on the price change brakes? {nm} DTravel Jul 10, 09:52

And if that's what happens that would be a great explanation. Much better than the evasive no-answers currently offered. {nm} The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 13:07

If players know how the exact algorthim works, they will game the system. It's human nature. {nm} Antibody Jul 11, 13:48

How does saying "there were significantly more shorts/sells on that bond than any other in the first 3 hours" give away the exact algorthim? {nm} The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 17:56

It does, but answering that would give away hints on how the system works. {nm} Antibody Jul 12, 10:47

Price of the bond seems to have an affect to - the higher the price the more it moves {nm} JDolphin Jul 10, 12:47

In my examples there are similarly priced bonds (and others I omitted) with similar volume not reacting wildly. That's the question. {nm} The Digital Mariner Jul 11, 13:05





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