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Playing & Trading Strategy

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number

Posted by: JDolphin on Apr 10, 22:35 in response to Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin's post Gotcha - so my question is this...

is based on all the things you and RogerMore mentioned and with this many movies in the franchise you can get a good pattern. Also how frontloaded it is - the more, the bigger the drop.

I picked 360 for Fast7 which was probably too high (under the influence of that massive opening) and then do a quick glance each day to see if the stock price falls below that.  If not I don't worry about it.  Based on the projected numbers for this weekend and the 1st weeks daily numbers I'm revising my number down to 350 (based on wknd proj, 60% wknd hold and 55% wk day hold), still too high I'm sure, but until the stock drops below that I'm not going to pay worry too much. When we've got more box office you can really judge it against the previous movies and come up with a fairly accurate delist number.

And thanks for the compliment.  :)

FAST7 predictions... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 17:05

I'm going with $320. Let's see if this pastes properly... Roger More Apr 10, 17:24

I'll try once more... Roger More Apr 10, 17:25

(dammit!) {nm} Roger More Apr 10, 17:27

Gotcha - so my question is this... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 18:21

There are a bunch of factors, but I think they all cancel each other out RogerMore Apr 10, 19:37

Thanks for your response, Roger More! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 20:24

Oh, I just remembered that FAST7's OW was underestimated, so the adjust was lower than it should have been RogerMore Apr 11, 09:10

So like... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

I'll say 328 {nm} RogerMore Apr 11, 14:00

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number JDolphin Apr 10, 22:35

Thanks for the great input! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

Dang, you were dead on {nm} MattW Feb 05, 19:42

331 {nm} Universal 100 Fund Apr 11, 07:23

Direct and to the point :) Thanks!! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:59

You should show your math. {nm} Antibody Apr 13, 14:04

No, no, don't do that. You get called names by Homer Simpson! You don't want that :P {nm} Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Apr 13, 19:28

The number zed reminds me of a doh-nut! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:43

See comparison with HGAME Antibody Apr 13, 13:48

This is a good piece of data, here. Interesting. Thanks Anti. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:42

I mean - it's uncanny how close these numbers are {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:44





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Mandy Moore (MMOOR) 25000 66.84 (+0.59)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 150000 28.83 (+0.84)          Kerry Condon (KCOND) 25000 49.99 (+0.15)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          This Tempting Madness (TTMAD) 150000 0.19 (0.00)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          The Way of the Wind (LPLNT) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          Havana Rose Liu (HRLIU) 25000 4.56 (-0.30)          Havana Rose Liu (HRLIU) 25000 4.56 (-0.30)          Chris Messina (CMESS) 25000 23.54 (+0.41)          Chris Messina (CMESS) 25000 23.54 (+0.41)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 37.24 (+1.75)          Jackass: Best and Last (JCKA6) 12500 50.23 (+4.43)          The Lunar Chronicles (LUNAR) 150000 59.69 (-1.53)          Digger (DIGER) 10000 134.52 (+0.63)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 37.24 (+1.75)          The Last Mrs. Parrish (LMRSP) 15000 0.11 (+0.03)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          The Six Billion Dollar Man (TSBDM) 150000 0.25 (-0.03)          Elon Musk Unveiled: The Tesla Ex (EMUTE) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.36 (-0.04)          The Second Act (SECAC) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 25000 22.39 (-0.73)          Renate Reinsve (REREI) 25000 36.23 (+22.23)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          The Movie Teller (MVTEL) 150000 0.06 (+0.03)          Will Forte (WFORT) 25000 12.32 (-0.98)          Mark Duplass (MDUPL) 25000 43.22 (+11.73)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 25000 22.39 (-0.73)          Joe Alwyn (JALWY) 25000 10.03 (+0.30)          Andrew Scott (ANSCO) 25000 36.92 (-0.19)          Joe Alwyn (JALWY) 25000 10.03 (+0.30)          The Last Viking (TLVIK) 150000 0.07 (+0.02)          Andrew Scott (ANSCO) 25000 36.92 (-0.19)          The Last Mrs. Parrish (LMRSP) 150000 0.11 (+0.03)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 430.40 (-1.10)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 37.24 (+1.75)          The Last Day (TLDAY) 150000 0.27 (+0.02)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 37.24 (+1.75)          The Fence aka The Cry of the Gua (TCOTG) 150000 0.29 (+0.02)          Mandy Moore (MMOOR) 25000 66.84 (+0.59)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 64.89 (-4.94)