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Playing & Trading Strategy

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number

Posted by: JDolphin on Apr 10, 22:35 in response to Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin's post Gotcha - so my question is this...

is based on all the things you and RogerMore mentioned and with this many movies in the franchise you can get a good pattern. Also how frontloaded it is - the more, the bigger the drop.

I picked 360 for Fast7 which was probably too high (under the influence of that massive opening) and then do a quick glance each day to see if the stock price falls below that.  If not I don't worry about it.  Based on the projected numbers for this weekend and the 1st weeks daily numbers I'm revising my number down to 350 (based on wknd proj, 60% wknd hold and 55% wk day hold), still too high I'm sure, but until the stock drops below that I'm not going to pay worry too much. When we've got more box office you can really judge it against the previous movies and come up with a fairly accurate delist number.

And thanks for the compliment.  :)

FAST7 predictions... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 17:05

I'm going with $320. Let's see if this pastes properly... Roger More Apr 10, 17:24

I'll try once more... Roger More Apr 10, 17:25

(dammit!) {nm} Roger More Apr 10, 17:27

Gotcha - so my question is this... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 18:21

There are a bunch of factors, but I think they all cancel each other out RogerMore Apr 10, 19:37

Thanks for your response, Roger More! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 20:24

Oh, I just remembered that FAST7's OW was underestimated, so the adjust was lower than it should have been RogerMore Apr 11, 09:10

So like... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

I'll say 328 {nm} RogerMore Apr 11, 14:00

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number JDolphin Apr 10, 22:35

Thanks for the great input! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

Dang, you were dead on {nm} MattW Feb 05, 19:42

331 {nm} Universal 100 Fund Apr 11, 07:23

Direct and to the point :) Thanks!! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:59

You should show your math. {nm} Antibody Apr 13, 14:04

No, no, don't do that. You get called names by Homer Simpson! You don't want that :P {nm} Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Apr 13, 19:28

The number zed reminds me of a doh-nut! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:43

See comparison with HGAME Antibody Apr 13, 13:48

This is a good piece of data, here. Interesting. Thanks Anti. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:42

I mean - it's uncanny how close these numbers are {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:44





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Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Mega Man (MGAMN) 150000 0.03 (-0.02)          The Sun Never Sets (TSNVS) 150000 1.63 (+0.11)          Branded (BRAND) 1894 0.04 (0.00)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 148899 60.00 (0.00)          Mega Man (MGAMN) 3093 0.03 (-0.02)          Adrien Brody (ABROD) 1 16.69 (+0.10)          Pierce Brosnan (PBROS) 5000 48.53 (+0.20)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Everest aka Mallory aka The Summ (SUMIT) 598 0.06 (0.00)          Adriana Barraza (ABARR) 1 29.07 (0.00)          Merlin (MERLN) 299 0.07 (-0.01)          Ranger's Apprentice (RNGAP) 897 0.04 (0.00)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Christian Bale (CBALE) 8000 87.82 (+0.25)          Astaire (ASTAI) 6 16.89 (-0.07)          Christian Bale (CBALE) 6000 87.82 (+0.25)          Assassination (ASSNT) 159 6.22 (+0.01)          Mob Girl (MOBGR) 897 0.04 (-0.01)          Grendel (GREND) 5 10.16 (-0.04)          Adria Arjona (AARJO) 1 20.98 (0.00)          Wonka 2 (WONK2) 69 35.98 (-2.16)          Girl (GIRL) 598 0.05 (0.00)          Nickels (NCKEL) 150000 0.67 (-0.10)          New York Will Eat You Alive aka (ZMBRO) 50 0.24 (+0.01)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Sienna Miller (SMILL) 7000 12.24 (-0.10)          Nickels (NCKEL) 150000 0.67 (-0.10)          Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje (AAAGB) 1 81.54 (0.00)          Kathryn Hahn (KHAHN) 9999 95.78 (-1.00)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 3.75 (-0.46)          Queen of Bones (QUBON) 508 0.01 (0.00)          Kathryn Hahn (KHAHN) 15001 95.78 (-1.00)          Drifter (DRFTR) 150000 3.75 (-0.46)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Phoebe Waller-Bridge (PWALL) 3 94.61 (+0.25)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Queen of Bones (QUBON) 9694 0.01 (0.00)          William H. Macy (WMACY) 25000 42.00 (+1.17)          Cate Blanchett (CBLAN) 3 15.62 (+0.02)          Ruby Rose (RROSE) 4 84.00 (+0.25)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 150000 16.51 (-0.96)          Adele Exarchopoulos (AEXAR) 1 49.20 (0.00)          The Governesses (GVRNS) 1197 0.03 (0.00)          Last Meals (LMEAL) 1500 0.70 (-0.01)          Deathstroke & Bane (DSTRK) 150000 40.90 (-0.20)          Stiletto (STLTO) 150000 4.13 (+0.43)          Days of Thunder 2 (DTHU2) 150000 60.00 (0.00)          Losing Earth aka The Statement (LERTH) 4 7.62 (-0.01)          Hugh Jackman (HJACK) 19602 71.48 (-0.39)