HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number

Posted by: JDolphin on Apr 10, 22:35 in response to Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin's post Gotcha - so my question is this...

is based on all the things you and RogerMore mentioned and with this many movies in the franchise you can get a good pattern. Also how frontloaded it is - the more, the bigger the drop.

I picked 360 for Fast7 which was probably too high (under the influence of that massive opening) and then do a quick glance each day to see if the stock price falls below that.  If not I don't worry about it.  Based on the projected numbers for this weekend and the 1st weeks daily numbers I'm revising my number down to 350 (based on wknd proj, 60% wknd hold and 55% wk day hold), still too high I'm sure, but until the stock drops below that I'm not going to pay worry too much. When we've got more box office you can really judge it against the previous movies and come up with a fairly accurate delist number.

And thanks for the compliment.  :)

FAST7 predictions... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 17:05

I'm going with $320. Let's see if this pastes properly... Roger More Apr 10, 17:24

I'll try once more... Roger More Apr 10, 17:25

(dammit!) {nm} Roger More Apr 10, 17:27

Gotcha - so my question is this... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 18:21

There are a bunch of factors, but I think they all cancel each other out RogerMore Apr 10, 19:37

Thanks for your response, Roger More! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 10, 20:24

Oh, I just remembered that FAST7's OW was underestimated, so the adjust was lower than it should have been RogerMore Apr 11, 09:10

So like... Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

I'll say 328 {nm} RogerMore Apr 11, 14:00

I tend to pick an early number(usually a little higher than final) and and then revise as each weekend box office unfolds. My initial number JDolphin Apr 10, 22:35

Thanks for the great input! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:58

Dang, you were dead on {nm} MattW Feb 05, 19:42

331 {nm} Universal 100 Fund Apr 11, 07:23

Direct and to the point :) Thanks!! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 11, 11:59

You should show your math. {nm} Antibody Apr 13, 14:04

No, no, don't do that. You get called names by Homer Simpson! You don't want that :P {nm} Rocket123 aka PVL Admin Apr 13, 19:28

The number zed reminds me of a doh-nut! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:43

See comparison with HGAME Antibody Apr 13, 13:48

This is a good piece of data, here. Interesting. Thanks Anti. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:42

I mean - it's uncanny how close these numbers are {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Apr 13, 21:44





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Billy Magnussen (BMAGN) 25000 53.17 (-11.46)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 53.13 (-11.58)          Billy Magnussen (BMAGN) 25000 53.17 (-11.46)          Jeremy Allen White (JEAWH) 25000 49.05 (+2.35)          Jay Duplass (JDUPL) 25000 11.58 (-0.87)          Jessica Chastain (JCHAS) 25000 14.23 (+4.16)          Dichen Lachman (DLACH) 25000 106.31 (-0.69)          Billy Magnussen (BMAGN) 25000 53.17 (-11.46)          Billy Magnussen (BMAGN) 25000 53.17 (-11.46)          Jeremy Allen White (JEAWH) 25000 49.05 (+2.35)          Jay Duplass (JDUPL) 25000 11.58 (-0.87)          Alia Shawkat (ASHAW) 25000 4.93 (-0.02)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          Dichen Lachman (DLACH) 25000 106.31 (-0.69)          Billy Magnussen (BMAGN) 25000 53.17 (-11.46)          Ji-young Yoo (JYOO) 25000 20.00 (0.00)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          The Catch (TCATC) 150000 82.33 (+0.58)          Ocean's 14 (OCEN6) 100000 73.90 (-0.68)          The Housemaid's Secret (HMAI2) 150000 98.12 (+0.08)          Seth Rogen (SROGE) 25000 59.80 (+0.16)          4 x 4: The Event (4X4TE) 931 8.08 (-0.21)          Hershey (HERSH) 147015 11.47 (-0.27)          The Asian Fund (ASIAN) 20000 20.00 (0.00)          Ji-young Yoo (JYOO) 25000 20.00 (0.00)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 150000 35.02 (+5.02)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 42.43 (-0.93)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 42.43 (-0.93)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 57225 35.02 (+5.02)          Kurt Russell (KRUSS) 25000 119.73 (-13.39)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 53.13 (-11.58)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 53.13 (-11.58)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 53.13 (-11.58)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 148278 35.02 (+5.02)          Hershey (HERSH) 150000 11.47 (-0.27)          De Gaulle - Part I: Resistance (DEGAU) 150000 0.48 (-0.12)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 53.13 (-11.58)          Will Poulter (WPOUL) 25000 9.85 (-26.90)          Will Poulter (WPOUL) 25000 9.85 (-26.90)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 148492 35.02 (+5.02)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 57472 35.02 (+5.02)          Wunmi Mosaku (WMOSA) 25000 101.93 (-0.63)          Jeremy Allen White (JEAWH) 25000 49.05 (+2.35)          K-Pop: The Debut (KPOPM) 3434 39.42 (+0.57)          Compassionate Release aka The Fr (CMPSN) 81234 35.02 (+5.02)          Seth Rogen (SROGE) 25000 59.80 (+0.16)          Wild Horse Nine (WILDH) 150000 13.41 (-0.51)          Jimmy (JIMYS) 150000 7.24 (-0.48)          Neal McDonough (NMCDO) 12 11.11 (-0.13)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 42.43 (-0.93)