Market Announcement: TVStocks for new Network TV series are now trading on Television Stock Exchange.

HSX Forums: Playing & Trading Strategy Board

The Week in Review/The Week Ahead: The Universal Fund [UNIVX], Episode 21

Posted by: UNIVX (a.k.a UNIVXFund) on Feb 10, 15:35

Apologies for the late update this week.  Next week's update should still come out on Sunday on schedule.

So this past week we were actually down by 1.1%, making it a bad 3 weeks in a row.  Mostly because I overanticipated Hail, Caesar!'s performance, which I thought would duplicate the Coen's most recent comedy with Clooney, Burn After Reading.  However, we're already up 4% half-way into this week, and I think UNIVX has finally shaken off our recent slump.  I don't think we have any major upsets in front of us now... with a lot more easily predictable films on deck.

We've been making our cash on Purge 3 with the launch of the new trailer, Battlestar Galactica with news on its development, and I've just bought into Focus' limited release Mr. Right with Rockwell and Kendrick, as well as The Invisible Man, now starring Depp.  We also made some cash back when I shorted Hail, Caesar! after the adjust, and now I've flipped it to long again considering it still has 3 weekends left and is already half-way to its current trading price.

This week we'll start things off doubling back and profiling a couple of films that now have release dates.

Mr. Right

It's got Sam Rockwell and Anna Kendrick, and that could help the box office.  But it's still only a limited release, and it's yet another hitman rom com, this time with a script from Max Landis, who bombed big time last year with last summer's American Ultra.  Still, with a $3 price tag, it's not a bad gamble.  It's very possible it will end up making somewhere in the $10 range, and the possible losses are minimal.  Mr. Right hits theatres April 8th.

Fast 8

Not sure how I missed this one the first time around, but it's too far out with too steep of a price tag to do the fund any good.  Fast 8 doesn't hit theatres until early 2017, and it's currently trading at $239.  The previous three sequels did $186, $220, and $320.  I think the latest installment is a bid of a wild card, because Justin Lin is gone.  Furious 7 had the controvery around Paul Walker's death, and the way that was handled within the film by James Wan probably boosted some ticket sales.  With 8, director F. Gary Gray comes on board hot off of Straight Outta Compton.  He's not a bad match for the material, and he's worked with Diesel before on A Man Apart.  He also did The Italian Job back in 2003.  But he's unproven with this franchise, and I don't know if there will also be a bit of a slump with Walker no longer featured.  I think it's likely the film will still do in the low to mid $200's, and if that's where it lands then the ticket price is already riding the high part of that range.  Obviously if it duplicates the success of Fast 7 then there's a good deal of money to be made, but I think that's a question mark right now, and one that requires a sizeable chunk of parked cash while waiting for more signals.  I'd wait on this one.

On Chesil Beach

And that brings us back to the in-development slate.  On Chesil Beach has Mike Newell attached to direct an adaptation of Ian McEwan's novel, starring Carey Mulligan.  It's still listed in development over at imdb, but it's not the next thing for Newell.  Pretty sure we'll eventually be looking at a limited release, and something that will land in the $5-7 range.  Not a ton of money to be made, and it's still uncertain if the film will ever go, but on the other hand, the stock is currently trading at 4 cents so there's really no reason not to buy it and see.

That wraps up another edition.  See you in a few days for Episode 22.  Our next release is Race, which hits wide on February 19th.




Tag(s): UNIVX

Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Emily Mortimer (EMORT) 20000 16.53 (+1.13)         At Eternity's Gate (ETRNG) 2800 2.07 (-0.17)         Kamikaze aka Destroyer (KAMKZ) 50000 31.15 (-1.11)         Emily Mortimer (EMORT) 20000 16.53 (+1.13)         Midnight Sun (MDSUN) 100000 0.36 (-0.05)         Alien Nation (ALNAT) 4 14.98 (-0.06)         Prison Love aka Untitled Larry (PRSLV) 100000 0.44 (-0.01)         Reykjavik (REYKJ) 100000 0.26 (-0.06)         The Boy Who Harnessed The Wind (BWHTW) 100000 0.39 (-1.05)         A Private War (APWAR) 3000 5.67 (-0.10)         Instant Family (ISFAM) 25 48.93 (+1.25)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2) 5 192.53 (+0.10)         17 Bridges (17BRD) 5 25.41 (-0.11)         Kamikaze aka Destroyer (KAMKZ) 100000 31.15 (-1.11)         Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (HTGSC) 100000 176.86 (-0.73)         Charlie Hunnam (CHUNN) 20000 35.25 (-1.31)         Fighting With My Family (FTWMF) 98570 18.17 (+4.66)         Casey Affleck (CAFFL) 20000 20.76 (+0.82)         Bill Nighy (BNIGH) 20000 12.36 (+1.12)         Destination Wedding (DSWED) 100000 0.47 (-0.02)         Destination Wedding (DSWED) 100000 0.47 (-0.02)         Troupe Zero (TZERO) 100000 8.00 (0.00)         Widows (WIDOW) 15000 46.27 (-1.54)         Brooklyn Decker (BDECK) 20000 13.49 (+0.36)         Destination Wedding (DSWED) 100000 0.47 (-0.02)         Loving Pablo (ESCOB) 9000 0.07 (+0.03)         Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ak (MFMLY) 5256 118.34 (+1.94)         Midsommar aka Untitled Ari Aster (MIDSM) 2969 25.16 (+4.15)         Ironbark (IRNBK) 1000 5.80 (-0.45)         Troupe Zero (TZERO) 100000 8.00 (0.00)         Bohemian Rhapsody (FREDI) 70000 136.02 (-0.97)         The Prodigy (PRDGY) 100000 20.59 (-0.36)         The Prodigy (PRDGY) 100000 20.59 (-0.36)         The Boy Who Harnessed The Wind (BWHTW) 100000 0.39 (-1.05)         Bathtubs Over Broadway (BTOBW) 100000 1.58 (-0.42)         Rami Malek (RMALE) 20000 34.41 (+2.04)         James Marsden (JMARS) 20000 5.36 (-0.04)         Regina Hall (RHALL) 20000 42.73 (-2.40)         Fighting With My Family (FTWMF) 100000 18.17 (+4.66)         Michelle Pfeiffer (MPFEI) 20000 69.09 (+0.13)         Fighting With My Family (FTWMF) 100000 18.17 (+4.66)         Troupe Zero (TZERO) 10000 8.00 (0.00)         The Possession of Hannah Grace - (CADVR.OW) 100000 5.00 (0.00)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2) 100000 192.53 (+0.10)         Kiersey Clemons (KCLEM) 20000 15.58 (+0.54)         Joaquin Phoenix (JPHOE) 20000 4.92 (+1.11)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2) 100000 192.53 (+0.10)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2) 100000 192.53 (+0.10)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2.PU) 20000 2.20 (+0.10)         Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of (FBST2.CA) 20000 3.78 (-0.16)