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The biggest impact could be on the weekend box office the week tickets go on sale...
There's definitely budgeting going on where audiences decide to skip going to theaters since there's a big upcoming release but the biggest impact could be immediately after tickets go on sale. Disney seems to have figured this out is timing the presales around their other releases.
Essentially, if you've already paid $50+ for tickets for a family of 4 to go see Endgame, then spending more money for another movie a few days later isn't likely. Instead, you can stay home that weekend and watch Netflix (which you're already paying for).
There is some evidence of this in the box office, but it's mainly those "meh" movies getting hit.
The weekend the Jem & The Holograms movie opened to historic lows was one of the lowest box office weekends (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=43&p=.htm) and it was immediately following The Force Awakens tickets going on sale. But there was nothing good enough to draw people to theaters.
Shazam did okay opening after Endgame tickets went on sale (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2019&wknd=14&p=.htm) but the question is presale vs walk-up ticket sales. People decided in advance if they were going to see both Endgame and Shazaam or if they could wait to see Shazaam.
That's always been true with families, but now that attitude is spreading to Millennials since many don't have the expendable income to indiscriminately go see any movie. But it's difficult for to tell since so many Millennials say they plan on seeing a movie and then don't actually go. Presale gets them to commit, but it could be hurting other movies.
Does someone know how a release like Endgame typically affects the multipliers of movies opening just before & after it? {nm} Apr 17, 13:39
huh...I don't think anyone's ever looked into that...that I know of {nm} Apr 17, 17:25
It doesn't. It has been said on here many times before. Apr 17, 17:38
No, I was just thinking of all the screens it will be taking up . {nm} Apr 18, 06:21
It's more like " "Avengers Endgame is in theaters next week, so I'm not going to see XYZ movie this weekend" {nm} Apr 18, 09:00
Here's the box office chart for STAR7's opening weekend Apr 18, 09:06
AVNG3 doesn't seem to have near the effect I thought it might. Deadpool still had >2X OW, Overboard nearly 3X, Book club >4X Apr 18, 11:53
It looks like the big impact is on movies that open the same weekend, which won't apply for AVNG4 Apr 18, 12:27
Thank you for your insights and data {nm} Apr 22, 08:19
The biggest impact could be on the weekend box office the week tickets go on sale... Apr 19, 12:02
ERC: In the wake of AVNG4: ...outside of Disney, rival studios' films in the Top 10 dropped an average of -68% this weekend. Apr 29, 10:37