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Taking a gamble on (TSTET.CA) - Might be Win-Win, Might get burned badly

Posted by: ballpark_frank on Oct 09, 07:18

Saw the price of the Taylor Swift Call derivative break the $7 mark, and did a little thinking:

Last projection for TSWIF OW I saw was $105-140
Had thought, like most others, the OW could break $150+, but looks like numbers are narrowing
Shorted the Call option max
Figure if TSWIF doesn't reach strike - well, that's an easy win (delist = $0)
Figure, even if TSWIF brings in up to $127, the short will still pay off (Box office - $120 strike price)
Of course, if TSWIF does a Barbie, I'm screwed - but looking at a net $22 range on the low end, vs a net $13 range on the high end (based on that last projection I saw) - seems like it's worth a decent gamble

Taking a gamble on (TSTET.CA) - Might be Win-Win, Might get burned badly ballpark_frank Oct 09, 07:18

And... still time left to bail if updated projections warrant it {nm} ballpark_frank Oct 09, 07:19

Inside post message (internal, not header), accidentally used wrong tab/abbreviation (TSWIF) - meant (TSTET). {nm} ballpark_frank Oct 09, 07:43

This one's only going one direction {nm} ndmaster Oct 09, 09:37

Famous Saying from the Game of BRIDGE: 'BET HIGH & SLEEP IN THE STREETS'. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Oct 09, 12:10

I hope you went long on the put as well bc it looks like it's coming in much closer to 100 than 120 MattW Oct 14, 16:50

Sadly, no... ballpark_frank Oct 14, 23:23

+$170k (and kicking myself for not buying 'Put') {nm} ballpark_frank Oct 17, 04:28

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Jehanne d'Arc (JDARC) 4000 25.02 (+0.06) Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 89.97 (-0.70) Rapture (RAPTU) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 89.97 (-0.70) Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 38 482.70 (0.00) Ecto aka Ghostbusters animated (GBUST) 1999 5.36 (0.00) River (RIVE1) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Ecto aka Ghostbusters animated (GBUST) 999 5.36 (0.00) The Devil Wears Prada 2 H$80 Put (PRAD2.PU) 25000 1.80 (+0.15) The Devil Wears Prada 2 H$80 Cal (PRAD2.CA) 25000 3.13 (+0.16) Hokum - Opening Weekend (HOKUM.OW) 100000 5.66 (+0.12) The Devil Wears Prada 2 - Openin (PRAD2.OW) 100000 82.77 (+0.83) Untitled Kyoto Project (KYOTO) 150000 11.32 (-1.21) Boiuna: Legend of the Amazon (BOUNA) 1999 17.58 (+0.02) Untitled Kyoto Project (KYOTO) 150000 11.32 (-1.21) Anna Faris (AFARI) 25000 81.66 (0.00) Jason Segel (JSEGE) 25000 23.88 (-0.12) Lee Cronin's The Mummy (TMUMY) 150000 35.70 (-1.17) Boiuna: Legend of the Amazon (BOUNA) 999 17.58 (+0.02) Rapture (RAPTU) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Kathryn Newton (KNEWT) 25000 58.96 (+1.23) Normal (NORML) 150000 16.00 (-1.10) River (RIVE1) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Normal (NORML) 150000 16.00 (-1.10) Lee Cronin's The Mummy (TMUMY) 150000 35.70 (-1.17) Kathryn Newton (KNEWT) 25000 58.96 (+1.23) Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 10000 27.04 (-0.25) Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 20000 27.04 (-0.25) Elden Ring (ELDEN) 2 46.05 (+0.20) Sterling K. Brown (SKBRO) 25000 54.56 (-0.16) California Schemin' (CASHM) 150000 1.38 (0.00) Starship Troopers (STRPR) 4000 36.76 (-0.27) Normal (NORML) 150000 16.00 (-1.10) Starship Troopers (STRPR) 4000 36.76 (-0.27) River (RIVE1) 150000 2.00 (0.00) The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt (LOTR5) 3 181.94 (-0.16) Rapture (RAPTU) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Rapture (RAPTU) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 40000 27.04 (-0.25) G.I. Joe sequel (GIJO4) 30000 19.41 (-0.03) The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 50000 256.98 (-2.57) River (RIVE1) 150000 2.00 (0.00) Lee Cronin's The Mummy (TMUMY) 5 35.70 (-1.17) Alana Haim (AHAIM) 25000 9.89 (+0.05) Kathryn Newton (KNEWT) 110 58.96 (+1.23) The Young People (TYPEP) 27000 14.47 (-0.06) Fleur (FLEUR) 10346 3.58 (-0.42) The Young People (TYPEP) 4000 14.47 (-0.06) Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 28000 36.84 (-0.12) Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 2000 36.84 (-0.12)