HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Big IPOs are super tricky
We buy these big IPOs assuming that if the movie is made we are sure to make a big profit. That's super long term bear thinking. Transformers 4 at an IPO of $150 devided by 2.7 tells us to expect an OW of around $55.5. Who wouldn't buy into that. We all know thats Transformers 4 real OW price, if the movie is made, would be closer to the $100 million mark. The inherent beauty of these big IPOs like the Hangover 3 and Pirates 5, is that if these movies are made, which they most likely will be, we are all guarunteed a big return on our initial investment. A lot of HSX players, including myself, have smaller ports and can't affor to sit on these stocks for 2 to 4 years waiting for that OW to roll around so these big IPOs are tossed to the bulls. Where we all play the market and have no allegiance to any particular stock as long as you see a profit that day. So transformers 4 is up $12 by end of day trading, you can reasonably assume a gang of traders will flip on it tomorrow and ride the short. As soon as it tips back and starts going up you flip again and ride it the other way. So it's safe to say, with big IPOs it's better to play day trader than OW warrior. That weekend might be a long ways off and may never come. I myself can't wait to have enough in my port to be able to play both sides of that coin.
Well Weekend Warrior you called it... Jul 31, 04:55
And people wonder why I don't buy IPOs anymore... {nm} Jul 31, 05:01
its ludacris {nm} Jul 31, 05:03
why not short them? Jul 31, 08:15
Im not saying it is. But if u saw a stock with 90m long and 200k short. Wouldn't u but instead of short? {nm} Jul 31, 08:23
nope. from when I started watching it, longs have gone up about 500k shares, while shorts have gone up over 3.5MM shares Jul 31, 08:31
im talkin about yesterday {nm} Jul 31, 08:36
this was pre-reset {nm} Jul 31, 08:37
BTW- i was answering A4J, as his response made it seem like buying was the only option {nm} Jul 31, 08:33
AH {nm} Jul 31, 08:37
Not if you've recognized the trend with big IPOs... Logic can burn you in this place. {nm} Jul 31, 08:33
yeah i know. Reset stuff seems illogical to me too most of the time. Why would u want to short that stock at reset? {nm} Jul 31, 08:37
People anticipate other traders selling off to get early profits, so they shorted the stock to get some quick profits too {nm} Jul 31, 08:53
after only a $H10 gain. Okay {nm} Jul 31, 09:12
Red pill {nm} Jul 31, 09:25
Take 'em both. {nm} Jul 31, 09:35
No, he didn't call for TFRM4 to go up 12+ on its first day, more like 2 based on past IPOs. Profit taking is expected. {nm} Jul 31, 09:38
I loved it. Still making money. Thank you TFRM4 {nm} Jul 31, 10:21
Big IPOs are super tricky Jul 31, 16:40