HSX Forum

Movies

My early adjust projections based on Wed numbers

Posted by: xiayun on Dec 22, 10:08

MISS4: in 2005, all films in the top 15 saw an increase on Thursday; however, we have a unique situation here created by Paramount's weird - some would call "cheating" - reporting, where they added the $2m figure it earned from Tuesday night expansion to Wednesday to artificially inflate the Wed number. So I expect Thursday to be higher than the $6.5m figure the film actually earned on Wed, but lower than the $8.5m studio reported.  $7m sounds reasonable, which was what I had in my predicted daily-breakdown chart, so I will stick with what I have for the rest of the week too.

So projected adjust price: 17.1 + 8.5 (Wed) + 7 (Thurs) + 43 (4-day) * 2.2 = 127.2

TGRLW: since it had the Tuesday figure correctly separated out, I see a flat or a small uptick on Thursday from Wednesday, so around $5m, then still go with the same daily change as I originally had for the rest of the week.

Projected adjust price: 1.6 + 5 + 5 + 25 * 2.2 = 66.6

TINTN: lower Wed than I expected. Using the same multiplier, we have

Projected adjust price: 2.3 + 2.5 + 14.5 * 2.2 = 36.7

 





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Soulm8te (SOM8T) 150000 0.22 (-0.29)          Olivia Wilde (OWILD) 25000 35.74 (+0.25)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 1000 2.32 (-0.02)          Zero A.D.: The Birth of Christ (BTLHM) 150000 31.62 (+0.24)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 10000 2.32 (-0.02)          Zero A.D.: The Birth of Christ (BTLHM) 150000 31.62 (+0.24)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 25000 51.48 (+4.79)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 1000 75.73 (+4.65)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 7789 123.70 (+1.82)          Hershey (HERSH) 1 14.06 (+0.10)          Hershey (HERSH) 150000 14.06 (+0.10)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 11394 51.48 (+4.79)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 51.48 (+4.79)          Hurricanna (HCANA) 1 1.07 (-0.01)          Hurricanna (HCANA) 15000 1.07 (-0.01)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 1000 51.48 (+4.79)          Dennis (DENIS) 1 5.32 (+0.40)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 150000 13.94 (-1.68)          Dennis (DENIS) 150000 5.32 (+0.40)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.79 (-0.14)          The Uprising (THOOD) 1 9.47 (+0.11)          The Uprising (THOOD) 150000 9.47 (+0.11)          PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie (PAWP3) 1 46.09 (+1.30)          PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie (PAWP3) 150000 46.09 (+1.30)          Moana - $115M Blockbuster Warran (MOAN1.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 120000 60.05 (+1.72)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 150000 18.98 (+1.78)          Violent Night 2 (VILN2) 24999 23.93 (+0.17)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 2000 609.62 (+19.56)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 105000 10.88 (+0.08)          Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Mi (TSDCM) 125000 2.27 (-0.13)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 150000 501.99 (+0.91)          Coward (COWRD) 49999 1.31 (+0.15)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 1 14.92 (+0.41)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 14.92 (+0.41)          Shang-Chi 2 (SHCH2) 150000 37.91 (+1.08)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 1 5.79 (-0.14)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 1 5.79 (-0.14)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 1 123.70 (+1.82)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 123.70 (+1.82)          NDA (NDA) 1 7.80 (-0.31)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 150000 554.10 (+3.46)          NDA (NDA) 25000 7.80 (-0.31)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 20000 75.73 (+4.65)          The Saviors (SAVIR) 1 5.02 (+0.51)          The Saviors (SAVIR) 150000 5.02 (+0.51)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 150000 18.98 (+1.78)          Viva La Madness (VLMAD) 150000 18.98 (+1.78)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 1 51.48 (+4.79)