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Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm}

Posted by: dioneta on Jul 02, 14:31 in response to baronblacksheep's post So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have...

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm} Antibody Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy. BionicMoron, EAP leader Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW xiayun Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though xiayun Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm} numbersix_99 Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm} ShawnMR Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm} baronblacksheep Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) dioneta Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday. Roger More Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm} Roger More Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jul 03, 07:55





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Only What We Carry (OWWC) 72000 2.00 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 22.44 (-2.92)          Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affa (KBWBA) 50000 19.57 (-2.20)          JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution (JJTK3) 150000 9.09 (+0.88)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.27 (-0.24)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Dhurandhar (DHURA) 150000 1.16 (-0.02)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 100000 25.41 (-1.86)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.63 (-0.94)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 149999 2.00 (0.00)          Jack of Spades (JACSP) 150000 8.85 (+0.01)          Audition (AUDTN) 149999 4.00 (0.00)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 65000 22.44 (-2.92)          Fauzi (FAUZI) 150000 4.92 (+1.21)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 28000 25.41 (-1.86)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 10000 73.39 (-6.34)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 3 25.61 (+1.46)          Protector (PRTEC) 20000 1.89 (+0.18)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 3 25.61 (+1.46)          Sisu: Road to Revenge (SISU2) 150000 5.58 (+0.09)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 3 112.32 (+4.52)          Only What We Carry (OWWC) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 3 112.32 (+4.52)          Silent Night, Deadly Night - Ope (SNDN.OW) 14000 5.39 (-0.42)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Dog Years (DOGYS) 150000 1.58 (-0.42)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.63 (-0.94)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 1.63 (-0.94)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 18.31 (-1.92)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 150000 18.31 (-1.92)          Protector (PRTEC) 10000 1.89 (+0.18)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 9.47 (-0.53)          Audition (AUDTN) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 5 9.67 (-0.01)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 22.44 (-2.92)          One Punch Man (1PMAN) 5 9.67 (-0.01)          Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 6 33.05 (+0.06)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 5 162.72 (+0.61)          Hello Kitty (HLOKT) 5 24.94 (+0.08)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 5 105.25 (+0.35)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 10 69.44 (+0.49)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 8 259.43 (-1.33)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 32000 15.49 (+0.33)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mu (TMNT4) 5 80.05 (-0.05)          The Housemaid H$20 Put (HMAID.PU) 25000 1.27 (-0.24)          Silent Night, Deadly Night (SNDN) 36000 15.49 (+0.33)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 18 158.48 (-2.38)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 8 136.78 (-0.67)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 2.11 (-0.39)