HSX Forum

Movies

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday.

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a RogerMore) on Jul 02, 14:51 in response to baronblacksheep's post So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have...

The three day figure will obviously depend a lot more on word of mouth than most other openers.

And...

http://hsxsanity.blogspot.ca/2012/07/what-is-rsmtc-rule-does-it-work.html

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm} Antibody Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy. BionicMoron, EAP leader Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW xiayun Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though xiayun Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm} numbersix_99 Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm} ShawnMR Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm} baronblacksheep Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday. Roger More Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm} Roger More Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jul 03, 07:55





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Black Friday (BLKFR) 150000 1.99 (-0.04)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 34999 18.48 (+0.48)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 149997 2.35 (-0.02)          We Grown Now (WGNOW) 1 1.06 (-0.02)          The Opening Weekend Fund (OPENR) 19999 97.98 (-0.02)          We Grown Now (WGNOW) 150000 1.06 (-0.02)          Megalopolis (MEGAL) 500 23.35 (+0.31)          The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (TBCPE) 500 26.06 (+0.10)          Here (HERE1) 500 43.53 (+2.03)          Atlantis (ATLNT) 615 19.77 (-0.23)          Babes (BABS) 149999 1.35 (+0.05)          We Grown Now (WGNOW) 1 1.06 (-0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.46 (-0.15)          The First Omen H$10 Put (OMEN1.PU) 25000 1.55 (-0.24)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 3 2.35 (-0.02)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          FOX: Krapopolis (KRAPOP) 25000 13.15 (-0.21)          FOX: Krapopolis (KRAPOP) 25000 13.15 (-0.21)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 200 194.43 (-0.86)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Liam Hemsworth (LHEMS) 100 33.71 (+0.12)          Civil War H$20 Put (CVLWR.PU) 25000 2.19 (+0.19)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 21.39 (+1.39)          Civil War H$20 Call (CVLWR.CA) 25000 2.58 (+0.58)          Dan Stevens (DSTEV) 25000 19.91 (+0.30)          Adam Wingard (AWING) 25000 58.37 (+0.16)          Sniff (SNIFF) 15000 0.23 (0.00)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 24687 30.06 (-0.16)          Rebecca Hall (RBHAL) 25000 37.85 (+0.12)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 14313 52.87 (-0.16)          The Janson Directive (JANSD) 16501 0.06 (-0.03)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Robot Dreams (RBDRM) 2000 1.81 (0.00)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 1446 4.44 (-0.15)          With Love (WOLOV) 10000 22.49 (+1.37)          One Thousand Paper Cranes (OTPCR) 50000 0.01 (-0.04)          Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (GHST5) 105 113.35 (-3.17)          Balestra (BALES) 1 0.01 (-0.04)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.PU) 25000 2.46 (-0.15)          Levon's Trade (LEVON) 10000 18.41 (-0.16)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.CA) 25000 2.79 (+0.36)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 92534 23.09 (-0.05)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2.OW) 100000 58.34 (+1.10)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 10000 66.55 (-0.18)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Listener (LSTNR) 150000 0.08 (+0.05)          I Saw the TV Glow (ISTVG) 10000 4.44 (-0.15)          Here (HERE1) 50000 43.53 (+2.03)