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Agreed. Looking only at opening weekend, this has long written all over it....
...anything less and however the studio spin it, this film will be considered a massive dissappointment.
...the first film opened to 70m, and finished up with 190m...stating the obvious, but that is a lot of tickets sold, the audience is already there to push this to a 95m+ OW (given the behaviour of audiences towards sequels opening weekends - just one example, Casino Royale to Quantum of Solace, similar time of year, simliar final gross)...on top of that, whether or not it makes more in the long run (I think it will by some margin), there has been more than enough of an increase in the fanbase to help with the opening weekend too...as important is the fact the people this film is intended for actually like the first film, whether or not critics did, whether or not your average male did.
Yes, tracking has been wrong a lot recently and we have yet to be satisfied the Fandango numbers mean as much as Fandango and others would like us to believe , but this can still fall way short of the numbers being tossed around by tracking (some as high as 110-120m) and still adjust above the current price...
NF: final theater count for [TWLI2]: 4,024. 'Hollywood is expecting New Moon to do Iron Man numbers, or $100M" Nov 18, 15:04
Do we know if PRCUS is getting 650? {nm} Nov 18, 15:15
Humm. At the current price (and with the crowded market) it still sounds like a short to me. At best a wash. Thoughts? {nm} Nov 18, 15:49
Pretty boys, angst ridden girls, & vampires: Twilight is the epitome of a chick flick. I invision Dads & gay guys only. Nov 18, 17:29
I agree that it is a perfect girls night out flick but... Nov 18, 17:44
TheSureThing, is that really you... Where you've been at, bro? {nm} Nov 18, 18:38
Been around but not much, mainly play the blockbuster seasons. Who are you?? {nm} Nov 19, 21:53
Why, I'm old Factotum, of course.. :-) Facto, for short... ;-) {nm} Nov 22, 05:45
Given the bottom is around 90m while the ceiling could $120m, i don't see value of shorting {nm} Nov 18, 18:52
Agreed. Looking only at opening weekend, this has long written all over it.... Nov 18, 20:22
True...but one of the points I was making was that the tracking could be wrong by 15-20% and it still HSX adjust long.. Nov 18, 20:43
She's enthusiastic about BLNSD (low 20s) and PLT51 (high teens/low 20s). {nm} Nov 18, 15:59
TWLI2 with daughter @ 12:01. Gonna be crazy {nm} Nov 18, 16:07