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True...but one of the points I was making was that the tracking could be wrong by 15-20% and it still HSX adjust long..

Posted by: Somerset (a.k.a woods081180) on Nov 18, 20:43 in response to HuskyMiller's post Naturally this assumes the tracking is correct. Which I...

....I think you are right though, the other new releases may exceed tracking because people can't get into Twilight .

Funny thing is, as much as I am throwing out these big numbers for it, I am never going to see this film and would love to see it fail to the benfit of my sizeable Cantor Exchange short position.

NF: final theater count for [TWLI2]: 4,024. 'Hollywood is expecting New Moon to do Iron Man numbers, or $100M" Antibody Nov 18, 15:04

Do we know if PRCUS is getting 650? {nm} grammar Nov 18, 15:15

If the updated list on the site is correct (it should be, as they just added some locations), then it'll be at 603 by my count. {nm} dsbman Nov 18, 18:11

Humm. At the current price (and with the crowded market) it still sounds like a short to me. At best a wash. Thoughts? {nm} HuskyMiller Nov 18, 15:49

I'm thinking we are underestimating how many guys will be seeing it... Some will go with girlfriends, some will go with groups of friends, Facto Nov 18, 16:47

Pretty boys, angst ridden girls, & vampires: Twilight is the epitome of a chick flick. I invision Dads & gay guys only. HuskyMiller Nov 18, 17:29

I agree that it is a perfect girls night out flick but... TheSureThing Nov 18, 17:44

85 million copies sold - keep that in mind, A fraction of that before the 1st film. The fanbase has expanded in a massive way. {nm} tbonearelli Nov 18, 18:36

Book vs movie = apples vs oranges. I loved the Harry Potter books but only saw the first movie. No more. To me, the books are waaay better. HuskyMiller Nov 18, 20:20

Repeat viewings from females will balance out how the demo skewers female... Btw, I've never seen a single Harry Potter-movie, nor read any Facto Nov 18, 20:30

TheSureThing, is that really you... Where you've been at, bro? {nm} Facto Nov 18, 18:38

Been around but not much, mainly play the blockbuster seasons. Who are you?? {nm} TheSureThing Nov 19, 21:53

Why, I'm old Factotum, of course.. :-) Facto, for short... ;-) {nm} Facto Nov 22, 05:45

+1.... it's amazing how many guys act like they are not interested. This movie is harry potter for teenagers & adults. 105mil easy {nm} tbonearelli Nov 18, 18:34

Believe me when I say I have no interest in this romantic vampire crap. Trust me, I could live to be 100 and will still NEVER want to see it HuskyMiller Nov 18, 20:57

Given the bottom is around 90m while the ceiling could $120m, i don't see value of shorting {nm} xiayun Nov 18, 18:52

Agreed. Looking only at opening weekend, this has long written all over it.... Somerset Nov 18, 20:22

Naturally this assumes the tracking is correct. Which I would be more inclined to believe (on the high side) if this were a Summer release. HuskyMiller Nov 18, 20:32

True...but one of the points I was making was that the tracking could be wrong by 15-20% and it still HSX adjust long.. Somerset Nov 18, 20:43

She's enthusiastic about BLNSD (low 20s) and PLT51 (high teens/low 20s). {nm} second gary Nov 18, 15:59

TWLI2 with daughter @ 12:01. Gonna be crazy {nm} MrsRobinson Nov 18, 16:07





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