Movies

THR: Based on pre-release tracking, LEGO could open in the $45 to $50 million range; MONUM $15 to $20 million; VACDM $9 and $10 million Antibody Feb 06, 11:57

Wonder if Roger, notfabio or anyone else has stats on how tracking has done with high-OW family movies. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:01

NRG has LEGO tracking slightly ahead of Hotel Transylvania 1 day before release in terms of interest (much higher for boys, though) {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:14

MTC had Hotel Transylvania at $35m (opened to $42.5m). They had LEGO at $43.8m earlier this week. {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:17

What did tracking say for Lorax, Frozen, etc. -- i.e., other non-sequels that opened big. Any notable lowball misses? {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:20

Just checked. MTC had $45M for Lorax at the time (link) ... KalElFan Feb 06, 12:25

So MTC was 55% off on Lorax, and if it's off the same here Lego would get close to $70M. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:27

The data is on-line if you want to check it out yourself. RogerMore Feb 06, 12:27

Thanks, I may. But the HSX link I gave yielded the Lorax lowball by MTC, pretty much confirming what I thought. They lowball. :-)... (more) KalElFan Feb 06, 12:33

lol those frozen predicts: 60,70,65....weekend estimate 93 {nm} thatpj Feb 06, 12:35

Well there's no MTC or RS for Frozen on Roger's spreadsheet, and the $93M actual (estimate) was 5-day. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:44

Those are five-day predictions. The prediction always matches the weekend (and if it doesn't, I fudge it so it does) RogerMore Feb 06, 12:51

Okay, so we don't have MTC but those others thatpj mentioned were off about 50% on Frozen as well. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:54

It's also cherry-picking the results that suit the hypothesis. Here's a fuller picture of MTC vs reality on non-summer animated. RogerMore Feb 06, 13:17

I'm no believer, but Rapunzel and the Lorax are perhaps the most comparable of the bunch, as they were about well-known figures. As is Lego. {nm} Facto Feb 06, 17:49

Roger actually provided the trifecta with Tangled. Along with Frozen and Lorax, it makes 3 Bonehead "tracking" out about 50%+... (more) KalElFan Feb 07, 07:11

I'll dare say that I think Lorax's $70m is up for grabs. That, or this will be the owner of the most overhyped pre-sales in a long time. {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:04

IMO 60+ at least {nm} gogreenytd Feb 06, 12:22

I've read that 85 is a possibility! {nm} pennystocks2 Feb 06, 13:17

Where!? {nm} thatpj Feb 06, 13:48

Well, if you base it just on the presales being ahead MONS2 and DESC2. {nm} Antibody Feb 06, 13:55

I have heard 40M up until yesterday - now the general estimate is north of $70..Very Strange {nm} Dank Feb 06, 13:25

Actually, 70 still falls into that 40M up that you heard about yesterday. Strange would be anything less than 40, right? {nm} pennystocks2 Feb 06, 13:42

When they give estimates on bigger movies the #'s are always a little less.. Much different with Dank Feb 06, 14:26

Very good points made and also very interesting. I'll watch for your post later if you get a chance. {nm} jdaniel Feb 06, 14:48

Thanks! Dank Feb 06, 15:06

LEGO surpassing advance ticket sales for Frozen (which opened to $67.3M in 3642 theaters), De Dank Feb 06, 12:12