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Thanks, I may. But the HSX link I gave yielded the Lorax lowball by MTC, pretty much confirming what I thought. They lowball. :-)... (more)

Posted by: KalElFan (a.k.a del_TOM_KalElFan) on Feb 06, 12:33 in response to RogerMore's post The data is on-line if you want to check it out yourself.

Not necessarily studio-lowball driven, at least not by that much ($25M in the Lorax case). It's just whatever they're measuring, guessing, or the like probably doesn't get at the kids demo that may be very eager to see it, or even their parents looking to take the kids in this case.

THR: Based on pre-release tracking, LEGO could open in the $45 to $50 million range; MONUM $15 to $20 million; VACDM $9 and $10 million Antibody Feb 06, 11:57

Wonder if Roger, notfabio or anyone else has stats on how tracking has done with high-OW family movies. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:01

NRG has LEGO tracking slightly ahead of Hotel Transylvania 1 day before release in terms of interest (much higher for boys, though) {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:14

MTC had Hotel Transylvania at $35m (opened to $42.5m). They had LEGO at $43.8m earlier this week. {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:17

What did tracking say for Lorax, Frozen, etc. -- i.e., other non-sequels that opened big. Any notable lowball misses? {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:20

Just checked. MTC had $45M for Lorax at the time (link) ... KalElFan Feb 06, 12:25

So MTC was 55% off on Lorax, and if it's off the same here Lego would get close to $70M. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:27

The data is on-line if you want to check it out yourself. RogerMore Feb 06, 12:27

Thanks, I may. But the HSX link I gave yielded the Lorax lowball by MTC, pretty much confirming what I thought. They lowball. :-)... (more) KalElFan Feb 06, 12:33

lol those frozen predicts: 60,70,65....weekend estimate 93 {nm} thatpj Feb 06, 12:35

Well there's no MTC or RS for Frozen on Roger's spreadsheet, and the $93M actual (estimate) was 5-day. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:44

Those are five-day predictions. The prediction always matches the weekend (and if it doesn't, I fudge it so it does) RogerMore Feb 06, 12:51

Okay, so we don't have MTC but those others thatpj mentioned were off about 50% on Frozen as well. {nm} KalElFan Feb 06, 12:54

It's also cherry-picking the results that suit the hypothesis. Here's a fuller picture of MTC vs reality on non-summer animated. RogerMore Feb 06, 13:17

I'm no believer, but Rapunzel and the Lorax are perhaps the most comparable of the bunch, as they were about well-known figures. As is Lego. {nm} Facto Feb 06, 17:49

Roger actually provided the trifecta with Tangled. Along with Frozen and Lorax, it makes 3 Bonehead "tracking" out about 50%+... (more) KalElFan Feb 07, 07:11

I'll dare say that I think Lorax's $70m is up for grabs. That, or this will be the owner of the most overhyped pre-sales in a long time. {nm} ShawnMR Feb 06, 12:04

IMO 60+ at least {nm} gogreenytd Feb 06, 12:22

I've read that 85 is a possibility! {nm} pennystocks2 Feb 06, 13:17

Where!? {nm} thatpj Feb 06, 13:48

Well, if you base it just on the presales being ahead MONS2 and DESC2. {nm} Antibody Feb 06, 13:55