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It's also cherry-picking the results that suit the hypothesis. Here's a fuller picture of MTC vs reality on non-summer animated.
NUTJB - MTC 17, OW 25.
CWCM2 - MTC 47, OW 35
GURDN - MTC 45 (5-day), OW 32
CROOD - MTC 45, OW 45
RALPH - MTC 40, OW 49
HTRNS - MTC 35, OW 43
LORAX - MTX 45, OW 70
RANGO - MTC 40, OW 38
RAPUN (5 day) - MTC 45, OW 69
GHOOL - MTC 32, OW 16
HTRYD - MTC 48, OW 43
From that list, I'd say that MTC way under-estimated on 5 - NUTJB, HTRNS, RALPH, LORAX, RAPUN. Throw in FROZN to make it 6.
But they also way over-estimated on GURDN, CWCM2 and GHOOL. And they got CROOD, RANGO and HTRYD more or less correct. (10% off on HTRYD is close enough)
Does MTC tend to under-predict this genre? Yes. 6 out of 12 is a definite pattern.
Does MTC consistently under-predict by 50%? No. 6 times out of 12, they have been close, or way over.
Wonder if Roger, notfabio or anyone else has stats on how tracking has done with high-OW family movies. {nm} Feb 06, 12:01
MTC had Hotel Transylvania at $35m (opened to $42.5m). They had LEGO at $43.8m earlier this week. {nm} Feb 06, 12:17
What did tracking say for Lorax, Frozen, etc. -- i.e., other non-sequels that opened big. Any notable lowball misses? {nm} Feb 06, 12:20
Just checked. MTC had $45M for Lorax at the time (link) ... Feb 06, 12:25
So MTC was 55% off on Lorax, and if it's off the same here Lego would get close to $70M. {nm} Feb 06, 12:27
The data is on-line if you want to check it out yourself. Feb 06, 12:27
lol those frozen predicts: 60,70,65....weekend estimate 93 {nm} Feb 06, 12:35
Well there's no MTC or RS for Frozen on Roger's spreadsheet, and the $93M actual (estimate) was 5-day. {nm} Feb 06, 12:44
Those are five-day predictions. The prediction always matches the weekend (and if it doesn't, I fudge it so it does) Feb 06, 12:51
Okay, so we don't have MTC but those others thatpj mentioned were off about 50% on Frozen as well. {nm} Feb 06, 12:54
It's also cherry-picking the results that suit the hypothesis. Here's a fuller picture of MTC vs reality on non-summer animated. Feb 06, 13:17
IMO 60+ at least {nm} Feb 06, 12:22
I've read that 85 is a possibility! {nm} Feb 06, 13:17
Where!? {nm} Feb 06, 13:48
Well, if you base it just on the presales being ahead MONS2 and DESC2. {nm} Feb 06, 13:55
I have heard 40M up until yesterday - now the general estimate is north of $70..Very Strange {nm} Feb 06, 13:25
Actually, 70 still falls into that 40M up that you heard about yesterday. Strange would be anything less than 40, right? {nm} Feb 06, 13:42
When they give estimates on bigger movies the #'s are always a little less.. Much different with Feb 06, 14:26
Very good points made and also very interesting. I'll watch for your post later if you get a chance. {nm} Feb 06, 14:48
Thanks! {nm} Feb 06, 15:06
LEGO surpassing advance ticket sales for Frozen (which opened to $67.3M in 3642 theaters), De Feb 06, 12:12
