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The both of youse is crazy nuts. PRNCE was a family flick, which is why it plunged 71%; If AVATR doesn't beat $7.5m, I'll eat my shirt.
Sometimes, you can get too clever with comparisons. PRNCE and AVATR both held up remarkably well through the holiday season, but for very different reasons. PRNCE was a seasonally-appropriate family flick that thrived during vacation week. AVATR isn't pulling in too many moms looking to entertain the little ones. There's no reason at all to think it will take a similar-size plunge on Monday.
More to the point, we're not operating blind here. At the bottom of this very board are reports from actual theater managers, to the effect that IMAX screenings were selling out throughout the day on Monday, and that almost all the traffic in the theaters was headed to AVATR. It's key to remember that we're talking about revenue, not about audience size. Overall, domestic IMAX has accounted for something like 12% of the gross, according to the numbers I've found. But that's got to be a higher proportion on weekdays than on weekends - or, to phrase it differently, the falloff in weekday audiences is disproportionately higher for the cheaper seats. Theaters sell many fewer 2D tickets, somewhat fewer 3D tickets, but almost as many IMAX tickets. So even if the audience declines by 50% or so, the actual gross will only decline by something more like 30%.
That's what makes AVATR different - and, along with the pent-up demand to experience the film on the best screen available, it's what has sustained its high grosses. The fall-off is likely to be sharper this weekend than it was last weekend, but much of that effect is already baked into the Sunday numbers, which declined very sharply from the first two days of the weekend as people's vacations drew to a close. I expect AVATR will be down an additional 35% over Sunday, to around $11 million. And I'd love to see a rational explanation of why it should be down more.
Take a look at the reports at the bottom of the board - this one's not trailing off anytime soon. Jan 05, 07:14
interesting comparison - hadn't gone through all the numbers; pretty interesting inside Jan 05, 07:49
You haven't done any real calculations if you believe Avatar won't pass Dark Knight with an $11 million Monday. {nm} Jan 05, 07:24
The both of youse is crazy nuts. PRNCE was a family flick, which is why it plunged 71%; If AVATR doesn't beat $7.5m, I'll eat my shirt. Jan 05, 07:43
Let me explain it more clearly. Yes, yes. I know the genre differences between AVATAR and Prince of Egypt. Follow me here. Jan 05, 07:57
This is a very good post, excellent info, thinking and analysis - big up! {nm} Jan 05, 09:50
Excuse me? ? {nm} Jan 05, 07:51
Show me a rational calculation where a $11 million Monday for Avatar leads to less than $533 million domestically. Jan 05, 08:05
Avatr Calcs Inside: (for what it's worth) :) Jan 05, 08:19
I thought you had Monday at $7.5? And why the sharp dropoff on Wed/Thur? {nm} Jan 05, 08:24
You shouldn't be using schedules that don't fit. Avatar is a phenomenon that can't be compared to I am Legend or TDATomorrow Jan 05, 09:14
Comparing the ultimate backloaded Avatar to two frontloaded films just doesn't make any sense. {nm} Jan 05, 10:00
Remind me when the actual numbers come out for Day 24, k. {nm} Jan 05, 13:44
You expect Avatar to make more during a normal, non-summer, non-holiday workweek than the weekend? Jan 05, 08:26
You're new to these boards, aren't you? :) Jan 05, 09:07
and LOL Jan 05, 12:07
was meant to be under Secretstalkers post. thank you {nm} Jan 05, 12:11
Hmm ... Jan 05, 07:48
Wait.. you don't think Avatar will beat TDK? You can't be serious..right? {nm} Jan 05, 09:13
I think the real question here is whether AVATR has a shot at surpassing Titanic {nm} Jan 05, 08:07
Agreed. It's irrelevant whether AVATR beats TDK domestically as AVATR has taken more worldwide {nm} Jan 05, 08:24