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Look at it as two different baskets of securities

Posted by: SPrasad2 on Feb 03, 09:28 in response to RogerMore's post But how do you know which is over-priced and which is...

The first basket is the stock price at any point in time / delist multiplier. The second basket is the strike price of the option + the call price - the put price. Those two baskets must always be the same value. If they're not the same value, you can pocket the spread between the two by shorting the higher priced one and buying the cheaper one. Of course both baskets will change in value after opening weekend--but my point is that after adjust, both will converge to equal the exact same amount. If you do this right, you should have neither upside nor downside--at any OW number, you will profit the spread. Any movement in the MST, for example, should be balanced by an equal move in the puts/calls as a result of OW grosses.

The easiest way to explain this is to make up a ridiculous example. Let's say every print of a movie burns to the ground today and the movie opens with a big fat total of zero. Let's also say for argument that the movie still adjusts. Lastly, let's assume there was a hypothetical spread where the Strike + Call - Put was more expensive than the stock. So, you bought the MST. That adjusts to zero--you lose the value of the MST. But, since you also shorted the call and bought the put, whatever you "lost" by the MST going to zero you profited from through the put. So, those two cancel out, and all you're left with is the riskless spread profit you made thanks to the price differential.

Using options for arbitrage trading: put-call parity SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:06

Wow! That post just gave me a headache. {nm} tonyj1 Feb 03, 08:18

By the way the multiplyer for a non-holiday weekend 2.7 not 2.8 {nm} tonyj1 Feb 03, 08:19

Ha! Fair point. Is kind of complicated. And thanks for catching my 2.7 error. {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:30

You're assuming there'll be efficiency between the call price and the put price before they halt on Friday, and that's not guaranteed. {nm} RogerMore Feb 03, 08:48

On the contrary--I'm assuming HSX isn't efficient. The adjustment forces efficiency--and profit exists between those two points. {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:53

But how do you know which is over-priced and which is under-priced before the adjust? Because if you miscalculate the OW and RogerMore Feb 03, 09:04

Look at it as two different baskets of securities SPrasad2 Feb 03, 09:28

i guess it makes sense in theory. however one could only play 10k of MST in order to be fully covered. {nm} Oleg Max Feb 03, 09:38

It would be less than that, because you have to divide the 10k by the multiplier to really hedge it out... {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 09:43

if that's the case, then we are talking about 3,704 shares in order to have riskless profit? & it involves 3 trades? too much math & effort. Oleg Max Feb 03, 09:47

way too complicated for this game ndmaster Feb 03, 09:45