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It ain't my fault I had too much time on my hands this morning!

Posted by: SPrasad2 on Feb 03, 10:50 in response to ndmaster's post way too complicated for this game

For the record, though, yes this is complicated (although making an excel calculator for this is surprisingly easy) and its about the same amount of worth for a port as a quick return bond before adjustments, which I think a number of us do if we've got spare cash lying around that we want to do something with.  I think the best way to think about this is as a short-term substitute for cash, considering cash in HSX gets you next to nothing in interest, and as a way to play the adjust when you have no idea where the OW will land/don't want to guess.

Using options for arbitrage trading: put-call parity SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:06

Wow! That post just gave me a headache. {nm} tonyj1 Feb 03, 08:18

By the way the multiplyer for a non-holiday weekend 2.7 not 2.8 {nm} tonyj1 Feb 03, 08:19

Ha! Fair point. Is kind of complicated. And thanks for catching my 2.7 error. {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:30

You're assuming there'll be efficiency between the call price and the put price before they halt on Friday, and that's not guaranteed. {nm} RogerMore Feb 03, 08:48

On the contrary--I'm assuming HSX isn't efficient. The adjustment forces efficiency--and profit exists between those two points. {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 08:53

But how do you know which is over-priced and which is under-priced before the adjust? Because if you miscalculate the OW and RogerMore Feb 03, 09:04

Look at it as two different baskets of securities SPrasad2 Feb 03, 09:28

i guess it makes sense in theory. however one could only play 10k of MST in order to be fully covered. {nm} Oleg Max Feb 03, 09:38

It would be less than that, because you have to divide the 10k by the multiplier to really hedge it out... {nm} SPrasad2 Feb 03, 09:43

if that's the case, then we are talking about 3,704 shares in order to have riskless profit? & it involves 3 trades? too much math & effort. Oleg Max Feb 03, 09:47

way too complicated for this game ndmaster Feb 03, 09:45

It ain't my fault I had too much time on my hands this morning! SPrasad2 Feb 03, 10:50

Well!, This is interesting however just by looking at what you wrote seems that is based in some assumptions that may no be there. Guillo Feb 03, 10:22

None of that matters. This strategy is bulletproof. The only problem is that you just can {nm} lukesed MGYLL option was for bes Feb 03, 13:18

...can't invest very much money in it. It does not in any way rely on a rational market. You just have to sell the MST right after adjust. {nm} lukesed Feb 03, 13:20





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