HSX Forum
Movies
Zootopia info and delist details...
Posted by: lobogotti on Mar 06, 09:30
Hello Good Folks.
Hopefully the peeps on the fence who weren't yet long on Zootopia saw my post on the 26th and took note. I noticed from that day to halt that nearly 300 people went long on the stock, and nearly 200 more went long on the OW.
From that post, to adjust today and delist on the .OW, .CA and .PU tomorrow you would have made over $7M on an investment of about $22M. At nearly $700K profit, this was a good hold for ports that $200M or more value.
I hit my $71M+ that I predicted before any tracking from the studios and went heavily against a .OW warrant of $50M. I'm proud of that, so I'll do a little patting of the back. Saw something in this film back in December that triggered the belief it could be a monster, was waiting to see some reviews come in that could help build my case.
I'm very happy I'd have won my bet (that nobody took) and for the film itself. IMO it deserves the records it set. Stop and think for a second that this film was never based on any previous source material and is the third largest opener ever for an original film (live action and animated).
All that being said, here are some films from Feb/Mar/Apr (also a few from fall when school was in session that didn't bump into major holidays before delist) that you can compare for help with delist.
|
|
OW |
2nd |
% |
3rd |
% |
4th |
% |
Delist |
Adjust |
$$$ |
Final |
HTTYD |
3/26/2010 |
43.73 |
29.01 |
33.7% |
24.86 |
14.3% |
19.63 |
21.0% |
158.25 |
118.07 |
40.18 |
217.58 |
Ice Age (02) |
3/15/2002 |
46.31 |
30.06 |
35.1% |
18.14 |
39.7% |
8.58 |
36.8% |
151.63 |
125.04 |
26.59 |
176.39 |
Croods |
3/22/2013 |
43.64 |
26.71 |
38.8% |
20.65 |
22.7% |
13.12 |
36.5% |
142.44 |
117.83 |
24.61 |
187.17 |
Lego |
2/7/2014 |
69.05 |
*49.85 |
27.8% |
31.3 |
37.2% |
20.82 |
33.5% |
209.13 |
186.44 |
22.70 |
257.76 |
Horton |
3/14/2008 |
45.01 |
24.59 |
45.4% |
17.74 |
27.9% |
9.12 |
48.6% |
131.08 |
121.53 |
9.55 |
154.53 |
Rio |
4/15/2011 |
39.26 |
26.32 |
32.9% |
14.79 |
43.8% |
8.5 |
42.5% |
115.21 |
106.00 |
9.21 |
143.62 |
Rango |
3/4/2011 |
38.08 |
22.6 |
40.6% |
15.08 |
33.3% |
9.77 |
35.2% |
106.34 |
102.82 |
3.52 |
123.48 |
Mnstr Vs Aln |
3/27/2009 |
59.32 |
32.61 |
45.0% |
21.81 |
33.1% |
13.24 |
39.3% |
163.06 |
160.16 |
2.90 |
198.35 |
Home |
3/27/2015 |
52.1 |
27.01 |
48.2% |
18.53 |
31.4% |
10.6 |
42.8% |
142.91 |
140.67 |
2.24 |
177.4 |
Rio 2 |
4/11/2014 |
39.33 |
22.16 |
43.7% |
13.88 |
37.4% |
7.71 |
44.4% |
106.58 |
106.19 |
0.39 |
131.54 |
Spongebob |
2/6/2015 |
55.37 |
*31.46 |
43.2% |
16.57 |
47.3% |
10.82 |
34.1% |
139.94 |
149.50 |
-9.56 |
163 |
Lorax |
3/2/2012 |
70.22 |
38.85 |
44.7% |
22.76 |
41.4% |
13.18 |
42.1% |
177.41 |
189.59 |
-12.18 |
214.03 |
Ice Age (06) |
3/31/2006 |
68.03 |
33.82 |
50.3% |
20.03 |
40.8% |
13.28 |
33.7% |
168.35 |
183.68 |
-15.33 |
195.33 |
|
|
|
|
40.7% |
|
34.6% |
|
37.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shark Tale |
10/1/2004 |
47.6 |
31.33 |
34.2% |
22 |
29.8% |
14.31 |
35.0% |
136.98 |
128.52 |
8.46 |
160.86 |
Hotel Tran 2 |
9/25/2015 |
48.46 |
33.19 |
31.5% |
20.42 |
38.5% |
12.65 |
38.1% |
136.81 |
130.84 |
5.97 |
169.7 |
Hotel Tran 1 |
9/28/2012 |
42.52 |
27.05 |
36.4% |
17.24 |
36.3% |
13 |
24.6% |
118.52 |
114.80 |
3.72 |
148.31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
43.70 |
40.7% |
28.58 |
34.6% |
17.81 |
37.7% |
196.17 |
198.99 |
-2.82 |
235 |
Avg w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
56.36 |
|
42.46 |
|
23.65 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
40.54 |
45.0% |
24.32 |
40.0% |
14.59 |
40.0% |
185.53 |
198.99 |
-13.46 |
221 |
.45 w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
53.20 |
|
38.20 |
|
20.43 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
42.38 |
42.5% |
26.49 |
37.5% |
16.55 |
37.5% |
191.50 |
198.99 |
-7.49 |
226 |
.425 w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
55.04 |
|
40.37 |
|
22.39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
44.22 |
40.0% |
28.74 |
35.0% |
18.68 |
35.0% |
197.73 |
198.99 |
-1.26 |
236 |
.4 w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
56.88 |
|
42.62 |
|
24.52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
46.06 |
37.5% |
31.09 |
32.5% |
20.99 |
32.5% |
204.22 |
198.99 |
5.23 |
243 |
.375 w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
58.72 |
|
44.97 |
|
26.83 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Zootopia |
3/4/2016 |
73.7 |
47.91 |
35.0% |
33.53 |
30.0% |
23.47 |
30.0% |
210.99 |
198.99 |
12.00 |
255 |
.35 w/ Lorax |
|
|
3.49 |
|
3.43 |
|
1.45 |
|
|
|
|
|
Weekdays |
|
|
3.67 |
|
3.91 |
|
1.62 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.61 |
|
3.12 |
|
1.36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2.89 |
|
3.42 |
|
1.41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
60.57 |
|
47.41 |
|
29.31 |
|
|
|
|
|
You can see above that 13 out of 16 films made a profit, but it's no easy task. Lego had major help with the Presidents Day and Valentines Day holiday.
Support starts at whether or not it can drop less than 37,5% next weekend. If it can do that then it has a good chance at delisting above it's adjust.
I would say for the films final tally (end of run) that $220M is most likely a lock. $250M feels like given it's reviews, but it won't be a cakewalk. Getting to Lego's number will be challenging, but with reviews, WOM and light competition for several weeks, this dog should run.
Hope this was helpful. Have a great Sunday.
lobo
Zootopia info and delist details...
lobogotti
Mar 06, 09:30
ffs.
{nm}
CSBD
Mar 06, 09:36
amateur, I know. I get harassed by DMac when I make predictions and have to fight to make my arguments.
lobogotti
Mar 06, 10:48
it's cool and it's nice to be excited about a big gainer, but it wasn't exactly a tough 'out there' kinda call.
CSBD
Mar 06, 11:16
The .OW was set to $50M, so calling for it to break records and perform 40%+ over that number I felt wasn't easy.
lobogotti
Mar 06, 11:25
Thanks for the insight Lobo. Always appreciated buddy!
{nm}
Willroast
Mar 06, 10:09
no problem Will. Hope life is treating you well buddy.
{nm}
lobogotti
Mar 06, 10:48
I need to invite you to one of my poker games. It's so easy to tell what/how you're holding, I would take all your cash.
{nm}
diamondman56
Mar 06, 10:12
no doubt.
{nm}
lobogotti
Mar 06, 10:49
Thanks and all but this was always a slam dunk for me which is why I went all in as soon as I had the cash last August.
{nm}
hyperzeitgeist
Mar 06, 10:29
And what was the price last August? That was before I started again.
{nm}
GruntNoNeck
Mar 06, 10:48
I bought at $91.82. Profit so far: $10,717,500.00 :)
{nm}
hyperzeitgeist
Mar 06, 11:04
I bought last month when I could afford it @ 142.
{nm}
GruntNoNeck
Mar 06, 13:31
nice trading. There were many others, Rolling Thunder and secondary come to mind last week about liking this one.
lobogotti
Mar 06, 10:50
*secondgary
{nm}
lobogotti
Mar 06, 10:52
I bought at $64.88
{nm}
RHAWK
Mar 06, 11:42
Hi. I bought at H$40 at the IPO, and held.
{nm}
second gary
Mar 06, 11:52
That seems like a very generously priced IPO!
{nm}
hyperzeitgeist
Mar 06, 11:59
I have it at 38.89! :) {nm}
slappydavid
Mar 06, 12:08
27.73
{nm}
CSBD
Mar 06, 12:42
my history....
RHAWK
Mar 06, 12:45
ZOOTP 100,000 long H$63.02 H$198.99 H$11.36 (6.05%) H$19,899,000.00 13,596,982.50 (215.76%) Trade
{nm}
PrincA$$ Laya a.k.a Han is Alive
Mar 06, 16:40
My issue with holding since last August is how much more would you have made with that money between then and now investing in other stocks.
Dorfman
Mar 06, 12:34
And I'm a hypocrite. I've been holding SUICD since July and have only made 2.33mil on it. LOL
{nm}
Dorfman
Mar 06, 12:42
:p
~JPV~
Mar 06, 13:38
HA HA JPV
{nm}
Dorfman
Mar 06, 18:54
There's always a stock or two that I can't let go of or flip. My favorites I guess. Even when they start losing a few bucks.
{nm}
pennystocks2
Mar 06, 17:44
PINK2
{nm}
Dorfman
Mar 06, 18:56
The thing is that it was 'spare' cash. If it wasn't parked there it wouldn't have been invested in anything else...
hyperzeitgeist
Mar 06, 15:26
I agree that we both are getting to the size of parking money. I didn't think you were at that point last July. I know I wasn't.
Dorfman
Mar 06, 18:56
Mispoke. I didn't mean to say I didnt think you were at that point as in a judgement of your port. I meant I didn't realize you were. Sorry
{nm}
Dorfman
Mar 06, 18:57
Yup as soon as I had the extra $ to leave in a stock I put in here too and performed nicely. Good insight too, it should do well.
{nm}
Baron_Darcon
Mar 06, 11:12
nice trading.
{nm}
lobogotti
Mar 06, 11:25
ZOOTP 100,000 long H$63.02 H$198.99 H$11.36 (6.05%) H$19,899,000.00 13,596,982.50 (215.76%) Trade
{nm}
PrincA$$ Laya a.k.a Han is Alive
Mar 06, 16:39
I apparently got it at $45. I think it's a major post adjust long personally.
{nm}
MiyazakiFan
Mar 06, 17:19
I think so too. I usually flip, but not this time.
{nm}
second gary
Mar 06, 17:22