HSX Forum

Movies

Reply Topic List All Forums

Zootopia info and delist details...

Posted by: lobogotti on Mar 06, 09:30

Hello Good Folks.

Hopefully the peeps on the fence who weren't yet long on Zootopia saw my post on the 26th and took note. I noticed from that day to halt that nearly 300 people went long on the stock, and nearly 200 more went long on the OW.

From that post, to adjust today and delist on the .OW, .CA and .PU tomorrow you would have made over $7M on an investment of about $22M. At nearly $700K profit, this was a good hold for ports that $200M or more value.

I hit my $71M+ that I predicted before any tracking from the studios and went heavily against a .OW warrant of $50M. I'm proud of that, so I'll do a little patting of the back. Saw something in this film back in December that triggered the belief it could be a monster, was waiting to see some reviews come in that could help build my case.

I'm very happy I'd have won my bet (that nobody took) and for the film itself. IMO it deserves the records it set. Stop and think for a second that this film was never based on any previous source material and is the third largest opener ever for an original film (live action and animated).

All that being said, here are some films from Feb/Mar/Apr (also a few from fall when school was in session that didn't bump into major holidays before delist) that you can compare for help with delist.

		OW	2nd	%	3rd	%	4th	%	Delist	Adjust	$$$	Final
HTTYD	3/26/2010	43.73	29.01	33.7%	24.86	14.3%	19.63	21.0%	158.25	118.07	40.18	217.58
Ice Age (02)	3/15/2002	46.31	30.06	35.1%	18.14	39.7%	8.58	36.8%	151.63	125.04	26.59	176.39
Croods	3/22/2013	43.64	26.71	38.8%	20.65	22.7%	13.12	36.5%	142.44	117.83	24.61	187.17
Lego	2/7/2014	69.05	*49.85	27.8%	31.3	37.2%	20.82	33.5%	209.13	186.44	22.70	257.76
Horton	3/14/2008	45.01	24.59	45.4%	17.74	27.9%	9.12	48.6%	131.08	121.53	9.55	154.53
Rio	4/15/2011	39.26	26.32	32.9%	14.79	43.8%	8.5	42.5%	115.21	106.00	9.21	143.62
Rango	3/4/2011	38.08	22.6	40.6%	15.08	33.3%	9.77	35.2%	106.34	102.82	3.52	123.48
Mnstr Vs Aln	3/27/2009	59.32	32.61	45.0%	21.81	33.1%	13.24	39.3%	163.06	160.16	2.90	198.35
Home	3/27/2015	52.1	27.01	48.2%	18.53	31.4%	10.6	42.8%	142.91	140.67	2.24	177.4
Rio 2	4/11/2014	39.33	22.16	43.7%	13.88	37.4%	7.71	44.4%	106.58	106.19	0.39	131.54
Spongebob	2/6/2015	55.37	*31.46	43.2%	16.57	47.3%	10.82	34.1%	139.94	149.50	-9.56	163
Lorax	3/2/2012	70.22	38.85	44.7%	22.76	41.4%	13.18	42.1%	177.41	189.59	-12.18	214.03
Ice Age (06)	3/31/2006	68.03	33.82	50.3%	20.03	40.8%	13.28	33.7%	168.35	183.68	-15.33	195.33
				40.7%		34.6%		37.7%

Shark Tale	10/1/2004	47.6	31.33	34.2%	22	29.8%	14.31	35.0%	136.98	128.52	8.46	160.86
Hotel Tran 2	9/25/2015	48.46	33.19	31.5%	20.42	38.5%	12.65	38.1%	136.81	130.84	5.97	169.7
Hotel Tran 1	9/28/2012	42.52	27.05	36.4%	17.24	36.3%	13	24.6%	118.52	114.80	3.72	148.31


Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	43.70	40.7%	28.58	34.6%	17.81	37.7%	196.17	198.99	-2.82	235
Avg w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			56.36		42.46		23.65

Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	40.54	45.0%	24.32	40.0%	14.59	40.0%	185.53	198.99	-13.46	221
.45 w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			53.20		38.20		20.43

Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	42.38	42.5%	26.49	37.5%	16.55	37.5%	191.50	198.99	-7.49	226
.425 w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			55.04		40.37		22.39

Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	44.22	40.0%	28.74	35.0%	18.68	35.0%	197.73	198.99	-1.26	236
.4 w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			56.88		42.62		24.52

Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	46.06	37.5%	31.09	32.5%	20.99	32.5%	204.22	198.99	5.23	243
.375 w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			58.72		44.97		26.83

Zootopia	3/4/2016	73.7	47.91	35.0%	33.53	30.0%	23.47	30.0%	210.99	198.99	12.00	255
.35 w/ Lorax			3.49		3.43		1.45
Weekdays			3.67		3.91		1.62
			2.61		3.12		1.36
			2.89		3.42		1.41
			60.57		47.41		29.31

You can see above that 13 out of 16 films made a profit, but it's no easy task. Lego had major help with the Presidents Day and Valentines Day holiday.

Support starts at whether or not it can drop less than 37,5% next weekend. If it can do that then it has a good chance at delisting above it's adjust.

I would say for the films final tally (end of run) that $220M is most likely a lock. $250M feels like given it's reviews, but it won't be a cakewalk. Getting to Lego's number will be challenging, but with reviews, WOM and light competition for several weeks, this dog should run.

Hope this was helpful. Have a great Sunday.

lobo

Zootopia info and delist details... lobogotti Mar 06, 09:30

ffs. {nm} CSBD Mar 06, 09:36

amateur, I know. I get harassed by DMac when I make predictions and have to fight to make my arguments. lobogotti Mar 06, 10:48

it's cool and it's nice to be excited about a big gainer, but it wasn't exactly a tough 'out there' kinda call. CSBD Mar 06, 11:16

The .OW was set to $50M, so calling for it to break records and perform 40%+ over that number I felt wasn't easy. lobogotti Mar 06, 11:25

Thanks for the insight Lobo. Always appreciated buddy! {nm} Willroast Mar 06, 10:09

no problem Will. Hope life is treating you well buddy. {nm} lobogotti Mar 06, 10:48

I need to invite you to one of my poker games. It's so easy to tell what/how you're holding, I would take all your cash. {nm} diamondman56 Mar 06, 10:12

no doubt. {nm} lobogotti Mar 06, 10:49

Thanks and all but this was always a slam dunk for me which is why I went all in as soon as I had the cash last August. {nm} hyperzeitgeist Mar 06, 10:29