HSX Forum

Movies

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill.

Posted by: goodvibe61 on Nov 06, 10:11 in response to TwoMisfits' post Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old...

Personally I enjoy trying to figure out how films are going to perform after opening weekend. It can be difficult to predict how they're going to last during their run. I think it's an interesting part of the game, and I'd be disappointed to see it go.

 

On that note, I'm already disappointed  seeing the adjust go. I think it's a changae that favors poor players. If I don't have the fear of missing the adjust badly, then I don't care about the opening weekend as much. You're telling me I can go ahead and flip my position and not worry that I'm going to get dinged on Sunday because I didn't accurately predict the opening. I think it's a lousy decision to take that element of risk of the game.

It's a game, right? Reward the better players. Being better than others at predicting the opening has been the lsingle largest element of separation with everyone else. I'm very disappointed in the change.

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


J.K. Simmons (JKSIM) 25000 35.52 (-21.93)          J.K. Simmons (JKSIM) 25000 35.52 (-21.93)          Jennifer Hudson (JHUDS) 20000 90.90 (+5.22)          Jennifer Hudson (JHUDS) 25000 90.90 (+5.22)          Jared Harris (JHARR) 25000 24.83 (-0.69)          Jared Harris (JHARR) 25000 24.83 (-0.69)          Ewan McGregor (EMCGR) 5000 53.32 (-9.40)          King Conan (CONA2) 25000 50.46 (-4.89)          Love of Your Life (LOYLF) 150000 2.38 (-0.72)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Put (HOTBS.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Primetime H$10 Put (PRMTM.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Primetime H$10 Call (PRMTM.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Put (HOTBS.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Call (HOTBS.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Forgotten Island H$20 Put (FRGIS.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Forgotten Island H$20 Call (FRGIS.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 20000 22.94 (+0.04)          Treasure Island (TISLN) 150000 62.06 (+2.58)          Brendan Fraser (BFRAS) 1 28.20 (+0.12)          Love of Your Life (LOYLF) 150000 2.38 (-0.72)          The Mummy Franchise (MUMY5) 5999 116.86 (-0.24)          King Conan (CONA2) 150000 50.46 (-4.89)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 150000 3.24 (+1.24)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 10000 67.37 (-0.15)          King Conan (CONA2) 100000 50.46 (-4.89)          Bitter Christmas (BITRC) 150000 0.76 (+0.08)          Bitter Christmas (BITRC) 150000 0.76 (+0.08)          You Can See Everything (YCSET) 149999 3.24 (+1.24)          King Conan (CONA2) 149999 50.46 (-4.89)          Eva Victor (EVICT) 25000 2.72 (+0.45)          Eva Victor (EVICT) 25000 2.72 (+0.45)          The Mummy Franchise (MUMY5) 1 116.86 (-0.24)          Couture (STCHS) 150000 0.21 (-0.09)          Practical Magic 2 - Opening Week (PRAC2.OW) 30725 38.67 (+0.92)          The Get Out (BEARC) 150000 1.02 (-0.21)          The Get Out (BEARC) 150000 1.02 (-0.21)          The Get Out (BEARC) 150000 1.02 (-0.21)          Jason Statham (JSTAT) 25000 34.66 (-1.13)          Resident Evil H$40 Put (RESE8.PU) 25000 1.09 (-0.06)          The Get Out (BEARC) 150000 1.02 (-0.21)          Andrew Scott (ANSCO) 25000 36.88 (-0.12)          Primetime H$10 Put (PRMTM.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Primetime H$10 Call (PRMTM.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Alice Braga (ABRAG) 25000 26.51 (0.00)          Primetime - Opening Weekend (PRMTM.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Put (HOTBS.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Alexander Ludwig (ALUDW) 25000 64.80 (0.00)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Call (HOTBS.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart of the Beast - Opening Wee (HOTBS.OW) 100000 15.00 (0.00)          Alessandro Nivola (ANIVO) 25000 16.05 (0.00)