HSX Forum

Movies

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out?

Posted by: islander (a.k.a del_CHG_islander2) on Nov 06, 01:12 in response to RogerMore's post 12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks....

I think OW -the combination of Hollywoods marketing, how tracking is, audience behavior- everything is geared OW, why not hsx?

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Fancy Dance (FNCYD) 150000 0.26 (+0.04)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 25000 80.00 (0.00)          Thelma (THELM) 150000 3.37 (-0.05)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Samuel L. Jackson (SLJAC) 251 39.36 (+0.12)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN.PU) 25000 2.54 (-0.08)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 999 64.95 (-0.15)          Treasure (TRESU) 150000 2.47 (-0.17)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 100 82.30 (+2.30)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 82.30 (+2.30)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 10000 144.44 (+6.70)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 10000 82.30 (+2.30)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 1000 80.00 (0.00)          Treasure (TRESU) 150000 2.47 (-0.17)          Ghostlight (GHSTL) 150000 0.71 (+0.03)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 2.25 (+0.02)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Bad Behaviour (BBHAV) 150000 0.25 (+0.01)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 5000 323.93 (+12.72)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 323.93 (+12.72)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 6612 323.93 (+12.72)          Nick Offerman (NOFFE) 1000 43.51 (-0.16)          Exhibiting Forgiveness (XHBTF) 10000 2.13 (+0.02)          Catherine O'Hara (COHAR) 25000 70.07 (0.00)          Hotel Tehran (HTHRN) 4000 9.69 (+0.05)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Treasure (TRESU) 14990 2.47 (-0.17)          Morfydd Clark (MCLAR) 25000 15.61 (-0.10)          Welcome to the Jungle (WLCM3) 68000 2.22 (+0.02)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 995 7.65 (-0.07)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 1 80.00 (0.00)          The Second Act (SECAC) 150000 1.76 (-0.04)          Psycho Killer (PSYKL) 2000 5.68 (-0.01)          Smile 2 aka Smiles (SMIL2) 83019 51.56 (+0.08)          Hamlet (HAMET) 2000 6.40 (0.00)          God's Country (GDSCN) 3000 4.17 (-0.01)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 150000 144.44 (+6.70)          Rabbit Trap (RBTRP) 5000 2.33 (-0.02)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 4000 3.52 (-0.01)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 25000 80.00 (0.00)          Minecraft (MINEC) 149987 96.47 (+0.37)          Fackham Hall (FACKH) 2000 6.18 (-0.02)          Cooler (COLER) 3000 4.96 (-0.02)