HSX Forum

Movies

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation

Posted by: islander (a.k.a del_CHG_islander2) on Nov 06, 01:06 in response to adrenalin112's post we're already holding stocks for years, post release is...

But with Hollywood totally gearing everything to the OW - see how the talk shows and site headlines blather about the ow but other than a few hits,  no one talks about movies by week 4. (Even after week 1 really - its on to the next thing)

like Jack Reacher - preopen  we can speculate if it's a new cruise franchise or will suffer from sequelitis. Now that it's opened, as a dud no less, I have to deal with it til nov 14, when I'm moving on to Arrival, Almost Christmas etc. definitely don't need to hold reacher anymore and certainly not 8 or 12 weeks as proposed.

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


My Penguin Friend (TPATF) 4000 3.26 (-0.04)          Hedda Gabler (HEDAG) 3000 4.66 (-0.05)          Deliver Me from Nowhere (DMFNW) 150000 26.44 (+0.21)          Die, My Love (DIMLV) 2000 6.59 (-0.05)          Starve Acre (STRVE) 15000 0.74 (-0.08)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZ2) 149999 51.61 (+0.01)          Treasure (TRESU) 5000 2.48 (-0.16)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 112 80.00 (0.00)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZ2) 150000 51.61 (+0.01)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN) 150000 58.22 (+0.03)          Summer Lovin' (SUMLV) 20000 1.77 (+0.02)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN) 150000 58.22 (+0.03)          Night Has Fallen (HFAL4) 4000 5.37 (+0.02)          Co-Parenting (COPRN) 15000 2.77 (+0.02)          The Shrinking of Treehorn (TSOTH) 8000 3.18 (+0.03)          The Hood (THOOD) 4000 8.31 (+0.03)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 112 80.00 (0.00)          Spider-Woman (SPDWM) 1000 38.99 (+0.03)          Despicable Me 4 (DESM4) 150000 270.23 (-1.85)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 2000 32.09 (+0.04)          Deliver Me from Nowhere (DMFNW) 2000 26.44 (+0.21)          Bring Her Back (BRNHB) 2000 18.00 (+1.14)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 82.30 (+2.30)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 323.77 (+12.56)          Boner aka Rise (VIAGR) 2000 6.74 (-0.01)          Nonnas (NONAS) 2000 8.35 (-0.01)          Frozen Hell (FRZNH) 10000 1.97 (-0.01)          Elevation (ELVTN) 2000 7.52 (-0.01)          The Purge 6 (PURG6) 1000 12.60 (-0.02)          Just Watch Me (JUSWM) 2000 7.66 (-0.02)          Creepers (CREPR) 2000 5.59 (-0.02)          The Chain (CHAIN) 1000 11.03 (-0.02)          By All (BYALL) 3000 4.88 (-0.02)          Azrael (AZRAL) 4000 3.39 (-0.02)          Sunflower (SFLWR) 1000 13.36 (-0.04)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN.PU) 20000 2.55 (-0.07)          Power Rangers (PWRNG) 2000 8.42 (-0.04)          The Freshening (FRSHN) 1000 10.57 (-0.04)          After the Hunt (AFTHU) 1000 17.43 (-0.04)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die (BADB4) 150000 144.10 (+6.36)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 1000 36.11 (-0.06)          The Bikeriders - Opening Weekend (BKRDR.OW) 50000 13.58 (+0.11)          Creed IV (CREE4) 500 56.23 (-0.05)          The Joy Luck Club 2 (TJLC2) 1000 13.90 (-0.06)          Send Help (SENDH) 1000 25.55 (-0.06)          Jane (JANE1) 1000 20.95 (-0.06)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 16978 323.77 (+12.56)