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Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12

Posted by: TwoMisfits (a.k.a del_SCA_TwoMisfits) on Nov 05, 12:30

This discussion was getting muddled below, but the reasons behind it are solid.

It seems Antibody wants more pure, accurate data. 4 weeks in pretty lousy for getting data of any type. It's too long a period to guage an opening weekend and too short to guage an overall box office. So, let's change it to 12 weeks and at least represent the real total box office of a movie. Why?

1. We ALREADY use 12 weeks for all limited movies. Since eliminating the adjust was partly to make things streamlined (since apparently having multiple adjusts would be too confusing), WHY have multiple time lines for movie box office? Just have 1 period when all movies delist...period.

2. But wait, why 12 weeks? As I mentioned below, tons of genre types don't really get near their full box office potential in 4 weeks. I listed 5 of the top 20 movies of the year (and I could have gone for more, but I got tired) that made 1/4 or more of their box office AFTER the arbitrary cutoff. Particular genres which get screwed by this cut off are animated, originals, older person skewing (ESPECIALLY older women), etc - we give limiteds 12 weeks b/c they'd get screwed by a 4 week cut off - why stop now for all of them.

3. You get more perfect data to shoot for. By 12 weeks, box office has hit probably 98%-100% for almost all wide-release movies.

4. With more perfect data, players having something to shoot for. Just like in Summer Top 5, players have shown the ability to predict TOTAL overall box office potential pretty well. And this gives players something to actually value vs some strange convoluted # now (since opening weekend is pretty much worthless, especially for those movies you know will sky and die, like supers sequels and horror)...

So, we already tossed 1 20 year old aspect of the game (the awesomer one), so let's get rid of the annoying one and make all movies delist at 12 weeks. Skip Box Office Warrants b/c they come out too late anyway to be of much use except as easy money makers...

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18